Various types of steel prices will trend next week

This week, the domestic steel market ended its short-term rally last week and returned to the downtrend channel. Although the downtrend is generally small, the bearish sentiment gradually accumulated, the trading volume has shrunk, new resources have arrived, and the financial pressure remains. Can not be underestimated, but the public expectations of the Third Plenary Session has ended, there is no direct good news, then the market price decline next week will increase? The following is the forecast for the next week's trend of various species.

1.** Aspect:

Period snail: In the recent period, snail has weakened. From the technical point of view, the daily k-line fell below the support of multiple averages platforms, the KDJ indicator weakened downwards, the red pillar of the MACD indicator shrank, and there was a sign of forklift; recently, the 3650 and 3630 keys were broken. Platform support, weaknesses show. Expected next week's market is still weak, or will continue to explore the 3600 platform to seek support, the low is expected to be near the 3580 platform. Therefore, the next week's operating strategy bulls are cautious and wait-and-see. In the early stage, the warehouse receipts rallies to leave the market first; empty orders can continue to be held, and the 3630 platform can be followed by a small amount of empties. The 3600 platform can temporarily stop watching.

2. Raw materials:

Iron Ore: The ore market as a whole remained stable this week. The Platts index of foreign metals fell by 0.5 US dollars from last week. The environmental protection inspections in North China were more serious and the resources were in short supply. Among them, the plant selection in the Xingtai area was suspended across the board, and the local mine Minxing Mining increased by 20 on Wednesday, driving some of the major mines in Shandong up. But so far, the purchase price of steel mills has not followed up, mainly because of the tight funding of steel mills, and the downstream steel price performance is not very good, but now steel stocks are generally tight and need to make up the stock, so a sharp adjustment in a short time The price is unlikely to be high. It is expected that the market will continue to be stable next week and will rise or fall in a dilemma.

Scrap: This week, the overall stability of domestic scrap, the local level adjustment 10-40 yuan / ton. This week due to the time of holding the Third Plenary Session, the market has generally high hopes for the meeting, but after the closing of the meeting, there is no direct good news. On the contrary, indirect impact on the industry excess production capacity is not small, because at present it is necessary to promote the operation of the market mechanism. With the focus on improving the competitive environment and incentives to promote innovation and green development, the problems of environmental protection improvement in the latter period will not be relaxed. Some sensitive markets in South China and East China have seen a slight drop. The southwestern Yunnan province has raised the price of electricity. This is undoubtedly an increase. The cost of steel mills has increased, and now the monetary base has tightened again. It is difficult to be optimistic in the late stage. Looking at the situation of the winter storage in the domestic market, due to the impact of the weather in the northeast region, the steel mills have to bid about 20 yuan to make up for the shortage. Although the inventory declines, but because the current form is not ideal, many said they can stay up and down, the probability of bid is small; expected stable next week weak, the adjustment range of about 20-30.

Billet: This week, Tangshan market fluctuates, which is 60 times lower than the same period of last week. At this stage, the market is in a turbulent phase. The price drops down and the price goes up again, and the transaction is reduced again and again. The decline in individual finished products was relatively large. The pessimistic attitude in the industry was strong and the transaction volume was small. On the afternoon of the afternoon, the billet price dropped by RMB 20/ton before it went down by RMB 10/ton, which was down by RMB 30/ton. In the near future, it is difficult for the industry to take advantage of this speculation since the Third Plenary Session was not entirely favorable. However, the cost pressures of steel mills are still there. They can only use the opportunity to increase prices, and the demand for finished products is not good. It is difficult to form effective support for billets, and the market price fluctuates more frequently. Other market transactions are tepid, and they are not optimistic about the market outlook, so the short-term price movement should be weak, with a range of 30-40.

Pig iron: This week, the main body of the pig iron market was stable, and some areas were slightly adjusted, rising and falling, ranging from 10-50 yuan. Among them, Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, and other areas of casting iron, ductile iron shipments are still available, low inventory, quotes rose. Individual iron plants in Shandong and Xuzhou have returned funds due to financial constraints and their selling prices have been reduced. At present, the high price of raw materials, coupled with the pressure of local inventory is not, the iron price is difficult to fall, but there is no obvious positive support, iron prices up weak, it is expected that the pig iron market will remain stable in the next week.

Coke: This week, the coke market maintained its stability, with local sporadic rises, and the steel market weakened again. Due to the long-term downturn in steel prices, the pressure on steel plants is high, and the willingness of winter storage is not obvious. However, since the maintenance of blast furnaces in steel plants has been stopped, there has been less maintenance. Just need a strong, so coke enterprises shipped smoothly, no inventory pressure, very willing to price very strong, the coke resources tight supply situation has not changed, the market confidence is better, it is expected that there is still a slight rise in coke prices this month.

3. Long products:

Building materials: This week's building materials were mixed, and the construction materials in eastern China rose steadily. Among them, the confidence of the major steel mills in the East China area was lifted. The market confidence was fair, and no resources were added. The inventory remained low and the prices remained high; the transactions in southern China were weak. Concerns about Northland and the South, small-scale plant resources are loose, and the mainstream steel mills are stable under lack of specifications. In North China, the lack of specifications in the previous period has gradually arrived and the differential levels have gradually returned to normal. However, no source of goods has been concentrated in the market, and there has been no significant contraction in the transaction. The market price has stabilized after a sharp drop of 120; the current cost support weakens, and the macroscopic side has no positive effect. With weaker demand, weaker adjustments are likely next week, with a range of 30-50. The shortage of resources for specifications is still strong.

Tubing: This week, the main body of the pipe material was stable. In the early part of the week, North China fell slightly. It is expected that there will be a possibility of price reduction this weekend. The Third Plenary Session has already ended. The overall emphasis is on reforms in all aspects. Transient information will not have a positive impact on the market. Market makers are more likely to look at the hollow state. In addition, at present, North Materials will be concentrated southwards in mid-month. Under the poor demand in the off-season, the terminal demand in the south of the city will face tremendous pressure, coupled with the lack of funds, the resources will be difficult to normal circulation, the supply and demand of the pipe market The gap will increase, and the chances of market price rebound in the afternoon will be very slim. In most regions, there will be plans to accelerate the release of inventory and lower the market price in order to reduce losses. It is expected that the pipe market will gradually decline next week, with a drop of RMB 30-50/t.

Profiles: After the rapid decline last weekend, the Northern Market led by Tangshan this week, at the beginning of the week, under the stimulation of low prices, the transaction volume was heavy, and the prices continued to rise again. However, the strength continued for only one day. The Third Plenary Session did not release any significant positives. Before the policy's good expectations fell to failure, the market regained the status of fundamental influence. From the aspect of supply and demand, the operating rate of this month continued to consolidate at a high level. In the off-season, the demand in the downstream is low, and supply and demand are difficult to achieve a balance. This is expected to decline slightly in the next week. In the south, due to low stocks and increased cost of arrival, short-term prices still have support, and shipments will be dominated next week with weak prices.

Special Steel: This week, the special steel market has remained stable and stable, with a range of RMB 20-40/ton. The structural steel, cold heading steel and hard-line steel stocks underpinned the steady growth, while the wire drawing market experienced intensified contradictions between supply and demand. The selling price fell slightly, and the transactions were not limited except that tight resources were still available for shipment. The situation is not good, but taking into account the cost support is still there, businesses are not willing to cut prices and are expected to go down steadily next week, down the space of 50 yuan / ton 4. Flat material:

Hot Roll: This week, the hot rolling is steady and weak. Although there is little room for quotations to fluctuate in various cities, the dominant markets in the first half of the week, East China, South China, and North China, basically stabilized, but due to the continued downturn, the continuous decline of billets also weighed on pressure. Market confidence, and the other three communiques in the communique did not directly affect the steel market. Businesses are more confused about the market outlook. There are obvious signs of dark shipments in the second half of the week. However, the overall amplitude modulation was cautious and basically controlled at 10-20 yuan/ton. For next week's trend, consider the off-season, the weather is getting colder, the demand for downstream steel is decreasing, and the transaction price is always suppressed. Although the current inventory at various places is decreasing, the hot-rolled steel mills have also increased from the previous period, but “ After the commencement of the “North Materials South” campaign, it will gradually increase market supply pressure and the market price may decline. However, the price adjustment of steel mills will be concentrated next week. Traders are more expectant of preferential policies and replenishment policies, so short-term quotes are more cautious, and consolidation is expected next week. Weak, in the range of 30 yuan / ton.

In the board: this week, the overall board showed a steady shock. The mainstream in North China remained basically untouched. Considering that the weather turned cold, the rate of outdoor utilization in the north decreased, the purchasing demand continued to decline, market resources gradually shifted, the market price was temporarily in a wait-and-see phase, and there was no change; market demand in East China was also weak, but the previous few days Shanghai Haze has caused heated debates on recent environmental issues. It supports certain spot resource prices. Except for a few cities, the mainstream market price is also stable. In southern China and central China, shipments are generally low, and the overall demand is weak. The market performance has made businesses have a certain psychological preparation for market conditions, so this week there was no downward adjustment action. The 3rd plenary meeting that the public expects has already ended, has not given the clear signal to the later trend, predicts that the mid-table movement of next week is still stable and shocking situation, the range is within 30 yuan/ton.

Cold Rolling: This week, the overall performance of cold rolling is steady and weak. With the market's anticipation of the Third Plenary Session, the capital market has experienced a general decline, which has increased the bearish sentiment among merchants, especially for merchants with large stocks in Shanghai. In order to ensure its daily shipments, the recent loosening of prices is more obvious. However, in Guangzhou and Lecong markets in South China, due to the shortage of mainstream resources in Liuzhou Steel, the overall price reduction will not be strong. In this morning, the quotation was raised by RMB10. Considering comprehensively, new resources will come to the market in the near future. However, except for a few lows, the transaction remains generally light. However, after Baosteel's ex-factory price in Baosteel continued to be flat in December, merchants are looking forward to price adjustments and preferential policies for other steel mills such as Wuhan Iron & Steel. The wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger. Therefore, it is expected that cold rolling will continue the pattern of narrower and narrower texts in the next week, a drop of around RMB 30/t.

Tropics: This week the strip market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main reason for the pull-up in the first half of the week was a sharp rebound in the early last week when the billet price fell sharply last week, causing a strong decline in the dominant steel mills in North China. However, as the weather turned cold, the downstream construction was limited, and it just needed to shrink further. The billet market continued to decline, which greatly exacerbated the pessimism in the steel market. The dominant steel mills in North China lowered their ex-factory prices again. Traders in East China and South China expressed strong sentiment. Many holding a weak steady state, the actual transaction more bargaining space. Considering this week, Yansteel's bidding price has not risen so much, and it has limited impact on the strip market. Facing frequent price fluctuations, downstream purchases have become increasingly deserted. Therefore, it is expected that the strip market will continue to decline in the next week at a rate of RMB 50/t.

Steel factory maintenance and capacity development: In early November, more steel mills announced their maintenance plans. The inspection time was from the beginning of November to the end of November, and was not limited to the maintenance of small and medium-sized steel plants. Some influential major plants in the region also had maintenance plans. Therefore, the domestic steel production will be limited in the later period. However, on the other hand, in the recent cold weather in the north, the shutdown of the construction site has gradually increased, and the demand for terminals will decline significantly. After the steel mills reduce production, the domestic steel market will still find it hard to meet the demand in order to boost steel prices. The short-term domestic steel market Or will maintain a weak balance of supply and demand.

In general, the raw material market or the trend is slightly better next week. The overall forecast is weak, and there is even a possibility that coke may be further washed up. However, there is a general weakness in the success of finished products. The declines in sheet and long products are both within RMB/ton. Affected by the shortage of goods, individual regions and specifications may continue to be firm.