Analysis of Double-section Pipe Market Forecast

The recent weaker steel market demand, the lackluster activity of the domestic pipe market, the overall market shipments were flat, the welded pipe market as a whole basically stable, individual small decline, the seamless pipe market main stable operation, the overall trading situation before the holiday slightly cold The festive atmosphere is getting stronger. For the later price movements, the business is not optimistic, and mostly expressed wait-and-see attitudes.

Market monitoring: The average price of 1.5-inch*3.25 welded pipes in key domestic cities was 3,843 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai area was 3,740 yuan/ton, steady; Beijing area was 3,750 yuan/ton, steady; Tangshan 3,620 yuan/ton, down 10; Guangzhou area, 4,020 yuan/ton, stable. The average price of 4-inch *3.75 welded pipe in major domestic cities was 3842 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai area was 3,930 yuan/ton, stable; the Beijing area was 3,730 yuan/ton, stable; Tangshan was 3,600 yuan/ton, down 10; the Guangzhou area was 4,020 yuan/ton, steady.

Today, the average price of 219*6 (8162) seamless pipes in domestic key cities was 4,571 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Among them, Shanghai is 4,300 yuan/ton, stable; Beijing is 4,350 yuan/ton, steady; Guangzhou, 4,950 yuan/ton, steady; Changsha, 4,550 yuan/ton, stable.

As for raw materials, as of the press release, Tangshan billet prices have fallen by RMB 20/t, Q235 Pulei Changli Ex-factory price is RMB 3030/t, and Xinglong and Guoyi are ex-factory prices by RMB 3030/t. The price of steel billet in Tianjin market dropped by RMB 30/ton, and Q235 billet was included in the tax payment to RMB 3,080/ton, and 20MnSi billet was reported to RMB 3,200/ton.

According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in the first half of September was 1.762 million tons, up by 1.29% from the previous month; the national average production of crude steel was 2.1944 million tons, up 0.48% from the previous month. With the improvement of the profitability of steel enterprises, the steel production enthusiasm is still high, and the operating rate of blast furnaces in Hebei Province is still maintained at a high level of 94.35%. In the event that the demand release is less than expected, the high level of supply pressure in the short term will suppress the development of steel prices to some extent. At the same time, the data also shows that the statistics of iron and steel enterprises inventories at the end of September were 12.595 million tons at the end of the ten-year period, an increase of 144,000 tons from the end of the previous period, and a month-on-month increase of 1.16%.

The six ministries and commissions issued the "Detailed Rules" that require Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas to compress steel production capacity and propose specific measures. By 2017, the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will decrease by about 25% from 2012 levels. , Shanxi Province, Shandong Province, a 20% drop in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a decline of 10%; Yesterday, the four ministries jointly issued the "on the continuation of the promotion and application of new energy vehicles notice", the new energy car subsidy introduced pure electric up to 60,000 yuan The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday the Fed discusses QE exit procedures.

On the whole, the domestic pipe market was stable and moderately weak this week. Recently, due to the drag on demand, the market volume has been at a low level. The recent domestic elimination of backward steel production capacity and the State Council’s new rules for strengthening urban infrastructure have been implemented. Let the market look forward to, but the impact is limited in the short term, raw materials continue to fluctuate weakly and run, coupled with the impact of financial pressure at the end of the month, it is expected that the Post-holiday pipe market will be dominated by steady consolidation or weakness.