On June 21, the June solar energy value chain index released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance showed that the spot price of polysilicon fell by 28% month-on-month to US$53.4/kg. Affected by this, the price of PV products in the middle and lower reaches of the PV also showed different levels of "diving". For example, the price of 6-inch polysilicon wafers fell by 23% in June, hitting a new low of $2.39/piece; the price of downstream polysilicon modules fell by 15% to $0.92/watt. What is the reason for the sharp drop in the price of polysilicon and photovoltaic products? What impact will it have on China's PV industry and enterprises? Our reporter recently conducted an interview. Say goodbye to the "profiteering era" "The recent decline in polysilicon prices and PV product prices is mainly due to problems in supply and demand." Xiaoxin, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, analyzed that from the supply side, the photovoltaic industry is hot in 2010, especially polysilicon. The high profits of the industry have stimulated a large number of manufacturers to launch polysilicon projects or expand production capacity. With the commissioning of these projects, the output of polysilicon and photovoltaic modules has increased substantially, and there has been a market situation of oversupply. From the perspective of demand, European countries have The reduction of photovoltaic subsidy policy has led to a significant decline in the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe, which directly affects the export volume of domestic polysilicon and PV module manufacturers, resulting in a large backlog of photovoltaic products. "At the same time as the demand is decreasing, the supply is increasing substantially, and the price is not falling?" Xiao said. Song Liang, a new energy industry analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, agrees. He also pointed out that Germany, Spain, Italy and other traditional European PV installation countries are not affected by their own economic fatigue, and they have not been able to provide more funds to support the development of new energy sources such as photovoltaics. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out that the decline in polysilicon prices is a normal phenomenon. Previously, the price of up to 500 US dollars/kg was abnormally affected by the serious supply shortage. Now that prices have fallen sharply, it can be seen that polysilicon is gradually bidding farewell to the "profiteering era" and returning to the track of rational development. Meng Xianyu also pointed out that with the current production level of some leading domestic enterprises, even if the polysilicon is reduced to the current 50 US dollars / kg, they still have a lot of profit margins. “Some domestic companies with high-end production technology can stabilize the production cost of polysilicon at only 22-25 US dollars/kg.†Meng Xianyu said that with the continuous improvement of production technology, there is still room for decline in polysilicon prices. Xiao Xin believes that the realization of photovoltaic emission level price is the ultimate direction of the development of photovoltaic industry, and the current PV module price is still not up to this level, so it is foreseeable that the price of polysilicon and PV modules will remain volatile in the future. . "From the perspective of the development of the industry, the decline in the price of polysilicon and photovoltaic products is inevitable for industrial development." Xiao said. However, in Song Liang's view, the current price of polysilicon has dropped to about 50 US dollars per kilogram, and it has basically reached the bottom. In the next 3-5 years, as the domestic market starts and the European economy gradually emerges from the “shadowâ€, global PV demand will surge. By then, the price of polysilicon and photovoltaic products will rebound. Stepping into the industry "cold winter" At present, polysilicon accounts for about 40% of the price of photovoltaic modules. Accordingly, Xiao Han believes that its price decline will effectively drive down the cost of photovoltaic power generation, thereby promoting the expansion of the photovoltaic power generation market; the expansion of the photovoltaic power generation market will in turn drive the increase in demand for photovoltaic modules and promote enterprise shipments. growth of. "At the same time, the industry's 'cold winter' brought about by the decline in prices is conducive to the realization of the survival of the fittest and industry integration of the photovoltaic industry. Enterprises with technological advantages, capital advantages, brand advantages and scale advantages will be further enhanced, and small and medium-sized enterprises that are not competitive in the market. Enterprises will be eliminated, and the competitiveness of the entire industry will be enhanced." Xiao said. Meng Xianyu also believes that the result of market competition is the survival of the fittest. After the price "diving", those small and medium-sized enterprises that have small production scale and backward production technology and have no price advantage will face bankruptcy or change production. Some large domestic enterprises benefit from the vertically integrated industrial chain that has been built, and their control over operational risks is relatively strong, and the negative impact is not great. Yao Feng, director of Jiangxi LDK Director LDK, said that due to the construction of the PV industry chain, the price “diving†did not have much impact on the profitability and production scale of the company. Even so, in the view of Xiao Han, the current domestic PV market has not yet started, the European PV market has cooled down overall, and the “cold flow†of price cuts has made the Chinese PV industry face a severe situation. "Especially for domestic small and medium-sized PV companies, in terms of technology, brand, scale and other aspects are not superior, the survival environment of these enterprises will face greater challenges." Xiao letter pointed out. Earlier, it was reported that Suntech Power expects a small increase in shipments in the second quarter, with gross margins not changing much in the first quarter, while large companies such as Trina Solar and Yingli expect the gross margin to shrink in the second quarter. Large companies are facing the dilemma of shrinking gross margins, and the situation of small businesses is even worse. Mr. Yang, a person in charge of a small polysilicon production enterprise in Jiangsu Province, told this reporter that the company's polysilicon production cost is 50 US dollars / kg, trading at the current spot price, its production and operation will undoubtedly deteriorate greatly, they have to turn to competition relative Other industries that eased. Learning to "dangerous" in seeking "machine" "Crisis time test is the company's ability to cope, this ability includes product quality, brand marketing, industrial integration and many other aspects." Xiao letter suggested that Chinese PV companies should "diving from the price" In the "risk", we saw the "machine" of enterprise development and prepared for the following aspects. "First of all, we must improve product quality and increase technology research and development. This is the foundation of enterprise development. Without reliable quality and advanced technology, Chinese PV companies lack the motivation for further development." Xiao said: "Second, we must increase Brand promotion and product marketing. As the competition in the photovoltaic market becomes more intense, market development becomes more mature, and good corporate branding and product marketing are becoming more and more important.†Xiao Han believes that in the end, it is necessary to increase industrial integration and promote the integration of upstream and downstream development. . Especially for the market leader, how to integrate the industrial chain and promote the development of upstream and downstream integration is more obvious, it can effectively enhance the company's ability to resist risks. Song Liang believes that at present, PV companies are facing development difficulties, and relevant government departments should provide more projects to support the development of photovoltaic enterprises like “Golden Sun†and concession bidding to help them tide over the difficulties. Meng Xianyu reminded that industry players should realize that the polysilicon industry is no longer a profiteering industry. On this basis, we must consider how to reduce costs and how to make enterprises competitive in product quality and price to confirm their increasingly fierce market in the future. Whether there is any advantage in the competition and whether it can win. "If enterprises want to have a place in this industry, they must strengthen their core competitiveness, strengthen the research and development of key core technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and establish a modern enterprise management mechanism, especially focusing on core technologies and high-end talents." Said to this reporter. "The photovoltaic industry must adhere to it and adhere to 5-10 years, and it can reach the level of parity Internet access. At that time, the vast domestic market can be truly opened, so from this point of view, the outlook is still relatively optimistic, there is no need to be a little irritated, it is pessimistic, just I hope that our company can find a suitable development path for itself." Meng Xianyu said.
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