However, the situation in Libya still needs to be observed, and the risk of high oil prices needs to be further digested. Although the overall metal prices showed a rising trend, but last week's last trading day due to armed conflict in Libya, oil prices soared, metal prices have responded to the callback in varying degrees, in which the most obvious decline in aluminum prices, a single day fell 0.6%. As we have mentioned before, according to the historical experience of the Second Gulf War, in the context of economic recovery, the slow rise in oil prices does not constitute too much pressure on metal prices. On the contrary, it is possible that both prices will rise at the same time. However, the sharp increase in oil prices in the short term is undoubtedly a test for metal prices. We believe that the evolution of the Libyan situation remains a key factor in determining the recent metal prices.
We can't ignore the phenomenon of “buying copper to buy aluminumâ€. We compare the position of LME copper and aluminum. We can see a significant change: Since February of this year, LME copper positions have declined, while LME aluminum positions have shown a rise. situation. The CFTC copper non-commercial net long positions have also recently declined. Comparing copper/aluminum prices, it can be seen that when the copper/aluminum exchange rate rises rapidly, there will generally be a decline in copper holdings and a rise in aluminum holdings. This occurred in March-July 2007 and March 2009-7. The month is more obvious. As the copper price continues to rise, the price of aluminum has stagnated, and the current price relationship between copper and aluminum is close to 4, which is at a historical high. Comprehensive data shows that at this stage, the market may once again appear to "sell copper to buy aluminum," which is obviously beneficial to the relatively stagnant aluminum prices.
Of course, foreign companies' forecast of improvement in aluminum supply and demand also constitutes a reason for “selling copper to buy aluminumâ€. According to Alcoa’s forecast, following a 13% increase last year, global aluminum consumption will also increase by 12% this year. The growth rate in the United States, Europe, China, and the Middle East will be roughly the same, while aluminum output will appear in other parts of the world this year. Surplus, but there will be 700,000 t output gap in our country. As for the judgment of China's output gap, since China has not announced the output of electrolytic aluminum in January-February, we still need to further observe. At the same time, recently Jiaozuo Wanfang released the announcement of resumption of production, which shows that the current pressure on the electrolytic aluminum industry has slowed down, and we also need to observe the resumption of production by various companies.
The turmoil in the Middle East driving up gold prices Reports on Libya last week caused crude oil prices to fall slightly on that day, but gold prices performed more violently, falling 1.5% on a single day. Subsequent to the armed conflict in Libya, both crude oil and gold prices recorded considerable gains last Friday. It can be seen that the current focus of gold prices is on crude oil prices, and the price of crude oil lies in the evolution of the situation in Libya.
The United States will continue to implement quantitative easing policies. The tightening inflation pressure in the euro area also supports the rise in gold prices. According to the newly released unemployment rate data, although the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to 8.9%, it is still not enough to change the United States to continue to implement quantitative easing policies, and Bernanke’s speech in the Senate also weakens the market’s expectation of the US’s premature end of easing policy. . However, it needs to be pointed out that Bernanke has begun to pay attention to inflationary pressure caused by rising commodity prices. The latest PPI data in the euro area shows that the price index continues to rise sharply, which reflects the higher than expected inflation pressure, while the European Central Bank President Trichet's speech makes the market more optimistic than the United States to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The difference in interest rate policy expectations has caused the US dollar to continue to be suppressed last week.
In the short term, the situation in Libya continues to show new conditions, and the expectations of the United States and Europe will implement different interest rate policies in the near future, and the price of gold is expected to continue to rise. In the medium- and long-term terms, gold prices can also continue to be optimistic. This is mainly based on the judgments of the continuous political crisis, the European debt crisis, the US economic recovery concerns and the global inflation situation.
In terms of small metals, the prices of rare earths, antimony and tungsten continue to maintain a substantial upward trend, and there is a strong ability to pass through the downstream of rare earths. Last week, the price of small metals continued to rise. The rare earth metals, tungsten, and antimony that we have been recommending for the three types of small metals continue to maintain a significant upward trend. The domestic tungsten price (APT) rose about 2.1% last week, while the export price increased by 1.3%; domestic antimony metal ingot prices rose 3.7% last week, and the export price rose by 3.5% last week. At present, the average price of domestic antimony ingots has reached 97,250 yuan/t, which has risen by 16% from the beginning of the year. The price of rare earth species soared this week. Among them, the price of antimony trioxide in light rare earths soared by 9%, and the price per t had exceeded 329,000 yuan/t, again setting a record high. The price of yttrium oxide rose by 9% a week, and the current price is 49,500 yuan/t, which has risen more than 50% since the beginning of the year. Antimony oxide prices were flat this week compared to last week.
According to the introduction of Asian Metals, the price increase is mainly related to the substantial price adjustment of Baotou Steel Rare Earth. Due to better market demand and rising prices of rare earth carbonates, Baotou Steel Rare Earth raised the ex-factory price again last week. At the same time, it is understood that NdFeB companies have been negotiating price increases with their downstream companies, and last week due to the sharp price increase of NdFeB (weekly gain of 27%). The inverse phenomenon of the prices of neodymium-iron-boron and metal antimony disappeared quickly this week.
This has greatly weakened the unacceptable worries of the market in the early stages of the price rise of rare earths. We believe that there is a strong ability to pass the rare earth downstream, which in turn will support the continued rise in prices of rare earth raw materials.
For other small metals, the outstanding performance includes: the price of hafnium rose by 2.7% last week, the indium ingot price increased by 5.1% last week, and the price of scrap titanium rose by 6%. However, the price of molybdenum oxide is relatively weak, which fell by about 1.4% from last week.
We maintain our judgment that the price of small metals will continue to rise. China's tightening of the supply of advantageous small metals is a direct driving force for prices. We believe that China's integration of small metal industries will continue in 2011, based on the progress of eliminating outdated production capacity in China at the beginning of the new year. This includes the integration of medium- and heavy-earth rare earths in the south and the rectification of antimony mining in the Lengshuijiang area. At the same time, China's large-scale mining companies (represented by Minmetals, etc.) have confidence in the global metal pricing power and their actions support us to continue to be optimistic about small metals. In addition, with the resumption of downstream work and economic recovery, we believe that domestic and foreign markets should accept the high prices of China's advantageous resource products should be the general trend.
"Three factors" running the status quo China factors, whether the continuous decline in PMI will weaken the market's expectations of tightening policies? According to the latest PMI data released, the PMI index in February was 52.2, down by 0.7 percentage point month-on-month, and the indicator showed a declining trend for three consecutive months. However, the indicators still remain in the expansion area, which may cause the market to believe that the economic downturn does not have to worry, and that the economic downturn is conducive to curbing inflation. Guoxin Macro believes that the most important thing in judging the end of the tightening policy or the expected slowdown is the weakening of inflationary pressure. Although there may be a slight decline in the CPI in January compared with January, the inflationary pressure in March is still large, especially the emergence of high oil prices. .
In the European debt crisis, inflationary pressures have led to stronger expectations for early interest rate hikes. The Eurozone January producer price index (PPI) rose 1.5% from the previous month and 6.1% from the same period of last year, both higher than market expectations, indicating that the inflationary pressure in the euro zone is still increasing. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s remarks on the high level of vigilance on inflation led the market to expect the euro zone to raise interest rates early or next month.
In terms of the US economy and the US dollar index, we maintain the “US economic recovery trend, and the US dollar index may constitute a trend reversal in 2011â€. According to the latest US PMI and unemployment data, the U.S. economy is still in the economic recovery channel. Guoxin Macro believes that the rebound in inventory relative to the demand growth has slowed down significantly, indicating that the upward trend of PMI in the future will turn stronger. If we consider the cyclical fluctuations of the U.S. economy since the crisis as a W-type with a gradually rising bottom, the right side of this type of W is now from the bottom up stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the economy has been re-inventory after the second period of de-stocking, driven by the investment in corporate equipment investment cycles and employment improvement. At the same time, Bernanke unexpectedly changed his views on inflation in his speech in the Senate. For the first time, he talked about the impact of rising commodity prices on US economic recovery and inflation. What we need to focus on is the possibility of future Fed policy changes. If the market's expectation of the Fed’s tightening policy continues to increase, the US dollar index will usher in a trend reversal.
The allocation of rare metal faucets Among the above three factors, due to the high oil prices caused by the tension in the Middle East, inflationary pressures and the recovery process have become a common concern of the market. Taking into account the amount of days of official bills due in March, the central bank has again implemented a number of measures such as raising the reserve ratio or raising interest rates. There is still a great possibility that the entire market environment will be constrained by the expected tightening of liquidity. The continuous decline in the PMI index is conducive to suppressing inflation expectations, but high oil prices are the problems we have to face. Among the three major factors, no obvious "investment benefits" have yet emerged.
In February, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by about 12.2% from January as a whole, basically covering the January decline. This is a reaction to the slight weakening of inflation expectations around the Spring Festival. Taking into account the recent market speculation on graphene, molybdenum and other concepts, as well as the proliferation of market hotspots and faster conversion speed, we believe that the current sector investment is still lacking in the mainstream direction. As a whole, the non-ferrous industry may be more in a Kind of consolidation trend.
Based on the current favorable development trend of rare earth, tungsten and antimony industry and the continuous increase in product prices, investors are advised to allocate leading enterprises in these fields early and maintain investment in Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600111) and Chenzhou Mining (002155). Rating. At the same time, if the phenomenon of “sale of copper and purchase of aluminum†in the ** market appears, it may lead to upstream trading opportunities for aluminum upstream companies.
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