From October of last year to the spring of this year, some cities such as Wuhan and Chongqing in the south of the country have experienced severe natural gas supply shortages, which have been described by the media and the society as "gas shortages." The “gas shortage†has not only seriously affected the normal life of the people, but also endangered social stability and has caused the country’s high attention. Premier Wen Wenxuan of the State Council has repeatedly instructed to take comprehensive measures to prevent the occurrence of a “gas shortage†in a large area.
This year's winter is approaching. In order to prevent the "gas shortage" from coming again, the country has done a lot of work in the construction of gas storage stations, natural gas extraction and import, and adjustment of natural gas prices. However, from the current supply and demand situation, the above measures may be difficult to fundamentally solve the tight gas supply situation. This year, the “gas shortage†in the south-central region may return again, and even further increase.
From the supply side, the supply of natural gas has increased this year. The completion of Putuketian's production and the increase in LNG imports have partially alleviated the shortage of natural gas. However, due to factors such as natural gas prices that are not yet in place, the supply of natural gas is expected to increase. With limited growth, it is difficult to fundamentally meet the rapidly growing demand.
Since 2010, the national economy has grown at an accelerated pace and natural gas demand has been strong. At present, the largest gas supply source for natural gas in China, the West-East Gas Pipeline, is operating at full capacity. Under normal conditions, the amount of gas used in winter is more than 3 times more than in summer. The balance of supply in summer and the full-load operation of pipelines mean that the demand gap in winter will surely appear further. It is expected that the gaps in the areas west of Nanjing where the pipeline network is underdeveloped, such as Wuhan and Changsha, may become more prominent.
The gas supply plan for the Second West-East Gas Pipeline this year is 6 billion cubic meters. Due to factors such as technology, geology and price, despite the recent increase in annual gas transmission capacity of the Central Asian pipeline to 9 billion cubic meters, the amount of gas supply cannot increase too much. many. Natural gas pricing by the National Development and Reform Commission obviously did not take care of the cost of the Second West-East Gas Pipeline. At present, the price of the Second West-East Gas Pipeline is significantly higher than that of the National Development and Reform Commission. As a listed company, CNPC should not significantly increase its natural gas supply at a loss. At present, the main gas source for the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline is Turkmenistan in Central Asia. Now, the entry price for the pipeline gas from Central Asia to Horgos is 2.2-2.6 yuan/m3, and the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline reaches the Pearl River Delta. The shipping cost is about RMB 1.5/m3, so the end-user's consumer price is about RMB 4/m3. At present, the local natural gas sales price per cubic meter is around 2.5 yuan. Therefore, CNPC's natural gas imports from Central Asia are actually in a loss state, and the price is unreasonable, making it impossible to increase the supply of West-East Gas Pipeline II.
Corresponding to the limited supply growth, the demand for natural gas will increase significantly this winter. After the financial crisis, China’s economy was relatively active and the demand for natural gas was very strong. This year, gas distributors including Xin'ao Gas, Kunlun Gas, and Ganghua Gas have all developed many new users, which will undoubtedly increase the demand for natural gas.
On the other hand, China's coal prices have been on a rising trend this year. Some industrial users who originally used coal began to switch to gas, which also increased the demand for natural gas. Due to the sharp rise in coal prices, coal fertilizers were still profitable last year. However, this year, only profit is low or no longer profitable. Therefore, many manufacturers have used natural gas to produce chemical fertilizers, which has also greatly increased the demand for natural gas. In addition, some power generation companies are also exploring the feasibility of switching to natural gas for power generation when coal prices have risen sharply.
With limited supply growth and a sharp increase in demand, the “gas shortage†this winter is likely to come again unexpectedly. Under the existing conditions, how can we avoid the “gas shortage†from coming again and test the wisdom of natural gas suppliers and local governments? Since the rigid demand for natural gas is very strong, it is not easy to completely solve the “gas shortage†in the short term. However, adopting some countermeasures cannot not only ease the “gas shortage†to some extent.
First of all, it should actively promote the construction of gas storage. The major measures for the European and American countries to respond to the "gas shortage" are to build underground gas storage. The U.S. currently has nearly 400 underground gas storages, with a working gas volume of about 110 billion cubic meters, which is about 16% of the natural gas consumption.
Although China has successively planned and constructed underground gas storages in central, eastern, and northern China, at present, only Dagang Oilfield’s underground gas storage has been completed, with a working gas volume of approximately 1.7 billion cubic meters; other underground gas storages such as Zhongyuan Oilfield and Jintan’s underground gas storage The reservoirs and underground gas storages in the Henan Oilfield are all under planning and construction.
In response to the “gas shortage†in the winter of 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration creatively increased the import of LNG to Shanghai and other users in the Yangtze River Delta region, making the West-East Gas Pipeline successful in other cities in the south. Supply air. Accelerate the construction of LNG projects and consciously arrange LNG storage tanks to participate in the prevention of “gas shortages†and also partially relieve the tight supply of natural gas.
Second, speed up the development and utilization of coalbed methane. At the National Energy Work Conference held on December 25 last year, Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Administration, repeatedly spoke about accelerating CBM development. The National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the development and utilization of coalbed methane has officially started in May this year. Through CNG, LNG, and DuPont-Pai-ai Pipeline, CBM will participate in the supply of gas this winter.
The development of coal bed methane will play a positive role in increasing gas supply capacity. It is estimated that the total output of coalbed methane in China will reach 10 billion cubic meters in 2010, of which 2.5 billion cubic meters of coal bed methane will be developed on the ground, more than double the 1,027 million cubic meters in 2009. The utilization rate has also been greatly improved. According to the results of the “12th Five-Year Plan†of CBM development and utilization by the National Energy Administration, the production of CBM will reach 20 billion cubic meters in 2015, of which the surface CBM production will be approximately 10 billion cubic meters.
Again, timely adjustment of natural gas prices. Due to a variety of reasons, some of the cost of onshore natural gas is relatively high. With the entry price of natural gas for the second line of West-East Gasoline Pipeline Plus Pipeline Transmission Charges, CNPC is actually bearing the pressure of loss to realize gas supply. If prices can be further increased, it will help improve China's oil supply enthusiasm. Due to high stocks and other reasons, the gas cost from Sichuan to East China is much higher than the cost of other domestic land-based natural gas.
An important reason for the “gas shortage†in China last year was the over-exploitation of natural gas users. In order to maintain the flow of account opening fees, or for the purpose of seizing the market, some urban gas companies have excessively developed new users. In these user structures, there is a serious lack of interruptible and adjustable users. The rigid demand for natural gas in China, coupled with an increase in seasonal demand, will inevitably lead to the emergence of “gas shortageâ€. In May this year, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the price of domestic onshore natural gas, largely to adjust the user structure in advance in order to ease the tension in the supply of gas this spring and next spring through price signals, but the price adjustment has not yet been put in place.
On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to adjust the national natural gas prices on land, with an average increase of 230 yuan/million cubic meters. In July, it also issued a document to supplement the price adjustment of natural gas and finely adjusted the price of natural gas sent from Sichuan to the east. Since the introduction of the price policy, land-based natural gas companies have been actively promoting prices, and related gas has been used to increase sales prices. At the same time, users of natural gas have been heated and cooled. CNG filling stations are clearly positive and end-users have responded strongly. This timing will properly increase the price of onshore natural gas, which will have a positive effect on optimizing the demand structure of natural gas and preventing the occurrence of serious “gas shortage†in the winter and spring of next year.
Natural gas suppliers should vigorously develop interruptible users. Last year, the gas shortage mainly occurred in the supply range of CNPC and CNOOC, and there was no gas shortage in the supply range of Sinopec and China United Coal, which was mainly due to the interruption of users. A large part of Sinopec’s natural gas users are refineries. After the winter, these refineries gradually reduce their natural gas consumption, switch to other fuels, gradually increase the supply of natural gas when the summer arrives, and adjust the gas consumption according to seasonal changes, so that they can Increase the elasticity of natural gas supply. Encouraging all gas providers to increase the number of users that can be interrupted can greatly reduce the possibility of recurrence of the “gas shortage†in winter.
This year's winter is approaching. In order to prevent the "gas shortage" from coming again, the country has done a lot of work in the construction of gas storage stations, natural gas extraction and import, and adjustment of natural gas prices. However, from the current supply and demand situation, the above measures may be difficult to fundamentally solve the tight gas supply situation. This year, the “gas shortage†in the south-central region may return again, and even further increase.
From the supply side, the supply of natural gas has increased this year. The completion of Putuketian's production and the increase in LNG imports have partially alleviated the shortage of natural gas. However, due to factors such as natural gas prices that are not yet in place, the supply of natural gas is expected to increase. With limited growth, it is difficult to fundamentally meet the rapidly growing demand.
Since 2010, the national economy has grown at an accelerated pace and natural gas demand has been strong. At present, the largest gas supply source for natural gas in China, the West-East Gas Pipeline, is operating at full capacity. Under normal conditions, the amount of gas used in winter is more than 3 times more than in summer. The balance of supply in summer and the full-load operation of pipelines mean that the demand gap in winter will surely appear further. It is expected that the gaps in the areas west of Nanjing where the pipeline network is underdeveloped, such as Wuhan and Changsha, may become more prominent.
The gas supply plan for the Second West-East Gas Pipeline this year is 6 billion cubic meters. Due to factors such as technology, geology and price, despite the recent increase in annual gas transmission capacity of the Central Asian pipeline to 9 billion cubic meters, the amount of gas supply cannot increase too much. many. Natural gas pricing by the National Development and Reform Commission obviously did not take care of the cost of the Second West-East Gas Pipeline. At present, the price of the Second West-East Gas Pipeline is significantly higher than that of the National Development and Reform Commission. As a listed company, CNPC should not significantly increase its natural gas supply at a loss. At present, the main gas source for the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline is Turkmenistan in Central Asia. Now, the entry price for the pipeline gas from Central Asia to Horgos is 2.2-2.6 yuan/m3, and the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline reaches the Pearl River Delta. The shipping cost is about RMB 1.5/m3, so the end-user's consumer price is about RMB 4/m3. At present, the local natural gas sales price per cubic meter is around 2.5 yuan. Therefore, CNPC's natural gas imports from Central Asia are actually in a loss state, and the price is unreasonable, making it impossible to increase the supply of West-East Gas Pipeline II.
Corresponding to the limited supply growth, the demand for natural gas will increase significantly this winter. After the financial crisis, China’s economy was relatively active and the demand for natural gas was very strong. This year, gas distributors including Xin'ao Gas, Kunlun Gas, and Ganghua Gas have all developed many new users, which will undoubtedly increase the demand for natural gas.
On the other hand, China's coal prices have been on a rising trend this year. Some industrial users who originally used coal began to switch to gas, which also increased the demand for natural gas. Due to the sharp rise in coal prices, coal fertilizers were still profitable last year. However, this year, only profit is low or no longer profitable. Therefore, many manufacturers have used natural gas to produce chemical fertilizers, which has also greatly increased the demand for natural gas. In addition, some power generation companies are also exploring the feasibility of switching to natural gas for power generation when coal prices have risen sharply.
With limited supply growth and a sharp increase in demand, the “gas shortage†this winter is likely to come again unexpectedly. Under the existing conditions, how can we avoid the “gas shortage†from coming again and test the wisdom of natural gas suppliers and local governments? Since the rigid demand for natural gas is very strong, it is not easy to completely solve the “gas shortage†in the short term. However, adopting some countermeasures cannot not only ease the “gas shortage†to some extent.
First of all, it should actively promote the construction of gas storage. The major measures for the European and American countries to respond to the "gas shortage" are to build underground gas storage. The U.S. currently has nearly 400 underground gas storages, with a working gas volume of about 110 billion cubic meters, which is about 16% of the natural gas consumption.
Although China has successively planned and constructed underground gas storages in central, eastern, and northern China, at present, only Dagang Oilfield’s underground gas storage has been completed, with a working gas volume of approximately 1.7 billion cubic meters; other underground gas storages such as Zhongyuan Oilfield and Jintan’s underground gas storage The reservoirs and underground gas storages in the Henan Oilfield are all under planning and construction.
In response to the “gas shortage†in the winter of 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration creatively increased the import of LNG to Shanghai and other users in the Yangtze River Delta region, making the West-East Gas Pipeline successful in other cities in the south. Supply air. Accelerate the construction of LNG projects and consciously arrange LNG storage tanks to participate in the prevention of “gas shortages†and also partially relieve the tight supply of natural gas.
Second, speed up the development and utilization of coalbed methane. At the National Energy Work Conference held on December 25 last year, Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Administration, repeatedly spoke about accelerating CBM development. The National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the development and utilization of coalbed methane has officially started in May this year. Through CNG, LNG, and DuPont-Pai-ai Pipeline, CBM will participate in the supply of gas this winter.
The development of coal bed methane will play a positive role in increasing gas supply capacity. It is estimated that the total output of coalbed methane in China will reach 10 billion cubic meters in 2010, of which 2.5 billion cubic meters of coal bed methane will be developed on the ground, more than double the 1,027 million cubic meters in 2009. The utilization rate has also been greatly improved. According to the results of the “12th Five-Year Plan†of CBM development and utilization by the National Energy Administration, the production of CBM will reach 20 billion cubic meters in 2015, of which the surface CBM production will be approximately 10 billion cubic meters.
Again, timely adjustment of natural gas prices. Due to a variety of reasons, some of the cost of onshore natural gas is relatively high. With the entry price of natural gas for the second line of West-East Gasoline Pipeline Plus Pipeline Transmission Charges, CNPC is actually bearing the pressure of loss to realize gas supply. If prices can be further increased, it will help improve China's oil supply enthusiasm. Due to high stocks and other reasons, the gas cost from Sichuan to East China is much higher than the cost of other domestic land-based natural gas.
An important reason for the “gas shortage†in China last year was the over-exploitation of natural gas users. In order to maintain the flow of account opening fees, or for the purpose of seizing the market, some urban gas companies have excessively developed new users. In these user structures, there is a serious lack of interruptible and adjustable users. The rigid demand for natural gas in China, coupled with an increase in seasonal demand, will inevitably lead to the emergence of “gas shortageâ€. In May this year, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the price of domestic onshore natural gas, largely to adjust the user structure in advance in order to ease the tension in the supply of gas this spring and next spring through price signals, but the price adjustment has not yet been put in place.
On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to adjust the national natural gas prices on land, with an average increase of 230 yuan/million cubic meters. In July, it also issued a document to supplement the price adjustment of natural gas and finely adjusted the price of natural gas sent from Sichuan to the east. Since the introduction of the price policy, land-based natural gas companies have been actively promoting prices, and related gas has been used to increase sales prices. At the same time, users of natural gas have been heated and cooled. CNG filling stations are clearly positive and end-users have responded strongly. This timing will properly increase the price of onshore natural gas, which will have a positive effect on optimizing the demand structure of natural gas and preventing the occurrence of serious “gas shortage†in the winter and spring of next year.
Natural gas suppliers should vigorously develop interruptible users. Last year, the gas shortage mainly occurred in the supply range of CNPC and CNOOC, and there was no gas shortage in the supply range of Sinopec and China United Coal, which was mainly due to the interruption of users. A large part of Sinopec’s natural gas users are refineries. After the winter, these refineries gradually reduce their natural gas consumption, switch to other fuels, gradually increase the supply of natural gas when the summer arrives, and adjust the gas consumption according to seasonal changes, so that they can Increase the elasticity of natural gas supply. Encouraging all gas providers to increase the number of users that can be interrupted can greatly reduce the possibility of recurrence of the “gas shortage†in winter.
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