Business Club February 24 News China's January imports of crude oil from the chain fell sharply by 14%. This figure has led to speculation - after the increase in Western sanctions on Iran, China will increase or reduce the import of crude oil from Iran?
An analyst from Sinopec believes that the possibility of increasing crude oil imports from Iran throughout the year is more likely. "The Chinese government should be more concerned with business principles than political considerations." He said that after Iran cuts or stops the export of crude oil to the EU, it needs to find new buyers for this portion of crude oil. According to him, Iran’s crude oil export prices to China will have a certain discount this year.
According to Iranian media reports, China International Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (hereinafter referred to as United Petrochemical) has reached an agreement with Iran’s national oil company on the renewal of the annual supply contract that expired at the end of last year. The specific content of the agreement has not been announced. The price and quantity of the agreement are unknown. United Petrochemical is China's largest oil importer.
When Premier Wen Jiabao visited the Gulf region in January, he also said that although Western countries have advanced the oil embargo plan for Iran, he is not worried about the oil trade between China and Iran.
According to estimates from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, China’s crude oil imports this year will probably maintain a 5% increase. In 2011, China imported 250 million tons of crude oil. “Even if the final import volume to Iran is really reduced, it will also seek incremental supply from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other places,†he said.
The reduction of imports from Iraq may be only in the first quarter of customs statistics, showing that China imported 2.08 million tons of crude oil from Iran in January, which was a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 14% lower than the previous month. Iran is China's third largest crude oil supplier, second only to Saudi Arabia and Angola. The country imports about 10% of its crude oil annually. In 2011, China imported 27.76 million tons of crude oil from Iran.
The 10%-20% reduction has not been confirmed by the aforementioned associations and corporate figures. Xia Wang energy analyst Liao Kaixi said that even if foreign powers say that China's crude oil imports from Iran this year will have a reduction of more than 10%, which translates into about 3 million tons of imports. "This value is not too large, and it is entirely possible to seek alternatives from places like Russia, Saudi Arabia and West Africa," he said.
Liao Kaixuan thinks that whether China will reduce or increase the amount of crude oil imported from Iran has too many variables, may consider increasing imports from the perspective of commercial interests, and may also slightly reduce imports under Western pressure.
The aforementioned Sinopec sources reminded that the reduction in import volume in January may have come from more commercial factors. United Petrochemicals did not import Iranian crude oil in January because the two parties had not reached an annual supply contract at that time. Previously, two other crude oil importers in China, Zhuhai Zhenyu Company and United Petroleum have renewed their contracts with Iranian National Oil Company. However, as Europe and the United States began to impose sanctions against Iran, United Petrochemicals began to hold more chips in price negotiations.
He estimated that considering that the two companies signed the annual contract in mid-February, it is expected that China’s imports from Iran in February and March will still decrease, but after the first quarter, supply will return to normal.
Crude oil as a whole imported or increased by 5%
A person from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association stated that although China may have a variable amount of crude oil imported from Iran this year, China’s overall crude oil import volume will certainly maintain a stable increase. He said that on the one hand China’s domestic crude oil output has been hovering around 20,000 tons per year, and the agency estimates that this year's increase is only about 1%; on the other hand, China’s apparent oil consumption will maintain at least 5%. The increase.
“In this situation, the continuous growth of crude oil imports is a trend.†He said that China’s dependence on crude oil imports this year will exceed 55%, and China’s dependence on crude oil imports will increase by 1.5-2% each year.
In fact, although China’s crude oil imports from Iran have decreased significantly in January, imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. In January, China’s average daily imports of Saudi crude oil increased by more than 14% to 1.14 million barrels. Since October last year, China’s average daily import of Saudi crude oil has remained above 1 million barrels. One of the reasons is that Saudi crude oil production has increased.
The average daily import volume of crude oil from Russia in January doubled from the same period of last year to about 584,000 barrels. A new oil pipeline between Russia and China was put into operation in January last year. Since then, China has gradually expanded its oil supply to Russia. The import.
According to the aforementioned association’s sources, China’s current crude oil business reserves are basically stable. At the end of last year, this figure was 220 million tons, and China’s annual oil consumption was about 450 million tons. Commercial stock generally refers to the number of crude oil reserves of PetroChina and Sinopec's two major companies.
He judged that the supply and demand for the whole year will be basically balanced, and the refined oil market of the terminal will be affected by the big environment of economic slowdown. Although it is estimated that the demand for diesel oil will also slightly narrow, it is expected to maintain about 5%. The increase was matched by an increase of about 8% in GDP.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Development†just released also predicts that the average annual growth rate of demand for refined oil products in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will slow from 7.8% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period to 5.5%.
An analyst from Sinopec believes that the possibility of increasing crude oil imports from Iran throughout the year is more likely. "The Chinese government should be more concerned with business principles than political considerations." He said that after Iran cuts or stops the export of crude oil to the EU, it needs to find new buyers for this portion of crude oil. According to him, Iran’s crude oil export prices to China will have a certain discount this year.
According to Iranian media reports, China International Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (hereinafter referred to as United Petrochemical) has reached an agreement with Iran’s national oil company on the renewal of the annual supply contract that expired at the end of last year. The specific content of the agreement has not been announced. The price and quantity of the agreement are unknown. United Petrochemical is China's largest oil importer.
When Premier Wen Jiabao visited the Gulf region in January, he also said that although Western countries have advanced the oil embargo plan for Iran, he is not worried about the oil trade between China and Iran.
According to estimates from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, China’s crude oil imports this year will probably maintain a 5% increase. In 2011, China imported 250 million tons of crude oil. “Even if the final import volume to Iran is really reduced, it will also seek incremental supply from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other places,†he said.
The reduction of imports from Iraq may be only in the first quarter of customs statistics, showing that China imported 2.08 million tons of crude oil from Iran in January, which was a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 14% lower than the previous month. Iran is China's third largest crude oil supplier, second only to Saudi Arabia and Angola. The country imports about 10% of its crude oil annually. In 2011, China imported 27.76 million tons of crude oil from Iran.
The 10%-20% reduction has not been confirmed by the aforementioned associations and corporate figures. Xia Wang energy analyst Liao Kaixi said that even if foreign powers say that China's crude oil imports from Iran this year will have a reduction of more than 10%, which translates into about 3 million tons of imports. "This value is not too large, and it is entirely possible to seek alternatives from places like Russia, Saudi Arabia and West Africa," he said.
Liao Kaixuan thinks that whether China will reduce or increase the amount of crude oil imported from Iran has too many variables, may consider increasing imports from the perspective of commercial interests, and may also slightly reduce imports under Western pressure.
The aforementioned Sinopec sources reminded that the reduction in import volume in January may have come from more commercial factors. United Petrochemicals did not import Iranian crude oil in January because the two parties had not reached an annual supply contract at that time. Previously, two other crude oil importers in China, Zhuhai Zhenyu Company and United Petroleum have renewed their contracts with Iranian National Oil Company. However, as Europe and the United States began to impose sanctions against Iran, United Petrochemicals began to hold more chips in price negotiations.
He estimated that considering that the two companies signed the annual contract in mid-February, it is expected that China’s imports from Iran in February and March will still decrease, but after the first quarter, supply will return to normal.
Crude oil as a whole imported or increased by 5%
A person from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association stated that although China may have a variable amount of crude oil imported from Iran this year, China’s overall crude oil import volume will certainly maintain a stable increase. He said that on the one hand China’s domestic crude oil output has been hovering around 20,000 tons per year, and the agency estimates that this year's increase is only about 1%; on the other hand, China’s apparent oil consumption will maintain at least 5%. The increase.
“In this situation, the continuous growth of crude oil imports is a trend.†He said that China’s dependence on crude oil imports this year will exceed 55%, and China’s dependence on crude oil imports will increase by 1.5-2% each year.
In fact, although China’s crude oil imports from Iran have decreased significantly in January, imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. In January, China’s average daily imports of Saudi crude oil increased by more than 14% to 1.14 million barrels. Since October last year, China’s average daily import of Saudi crude oil has remained above 1 million barrels. One of the reasons is that Saudi crude oil production has increased.
The average daily import volume of crude oil from Russia in January doubled from the same period of last year to about 584,000 barrels. A new oil pipeline between Russia and China was put into operation in January last year. Since then, China has gradually expanded its oil supply to Russia. The import.
According to the aforementioned association’s sources, China’s current crude oil business reserves are basically stable. At the end of last year, this figure was 220 million tons, and China’s annual oil consumption was about 450 million tons. Commercial stock generally refers to the number of crude oil reserves of PetroChina and Sinopec's two major companies.
He judged that the supply and demand for the whole year will be basically balanced, and the refined oil market of the terminal will be affected by the big environment of economic slowdown. Although it is estimated that the demand for diesel oil will also slightly narrow, it is expected to maintain about 5%. The increase was matched by an increase of about 8% in GDP.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Development†just released also predicts that the average annual growth rate of demand for refined oil products in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will slow from 7.8% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period to 5.5%.
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