On the eve of National Day, the 6th China Central Investment and Trade Expo was held in Taiyuan. According to reports, the host province of Shanxi Province signed a total of 203 projects during the Expo. Among them, coal chemical projects account for 40% of the total contracted volume. At the signing ceremony of the Xinjiang industry transfer series docking held in mid-June this year, the total investment involving coal, electricity and coal chemical projects reached 245.14 billion yuan, which also accounted for more than 40% of the entire contracted amount.
In fact, the phenomenon of Shanxi and Xinjiang is just a microcosm of China's coal chemical industry. As many coal chemical projects landed in various places, the disorderly development of the industry began to appear.
On the one hand, despite the prominent overcapacity problem in China's coal chemical industry, the development of this industry is still accelerating. According to data released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation in the first half of the year, the current national coal-to-olefins construction and proposed capacity of 28 million tons, coal-based oil under construction and proposed capacity of 40 million tons, coal-based natural gas The capacity under construction and proposed capacity is close to 150 billion cubic meters, and the coal-based ethylene glycol under construction and proposed capacity is over 5 million tons.
On the other hand, the lower start-up of the project launched is also a significant feature of the development of coal chemical industry. According to media reports, the actual capacity of coal-to-gas and coal-to-olefins projects planned in different regions is less than 10% of the actual start-up and start-up conditions. Under the background that modern coal chemical industry is subject to the bottleneck factors such as technology and energy consumption, many projects blindly launched by the company may not be able to smoothly reach production within the next five years.
Industry experts said that the lack of a clear strategic plan for the development of coal chemical industry in China is the root cause of the current chaos in the coal chemical industry. Among these, the biggest problem is that local interests do not harmonize with national interests. Some local governments only focus on immediate and partial interests, have resources to invest in projects, use project investment to drive GDP in the region, and lack overall strategic layout. In order to achieve economies of scale, some companies have won their opponents in the competition and are desperate to expand their capabilities.
Although long-term considerations, the development of new coal chemical industry is an important way to solve the shortage of China's oil and gas resources and achieve energy supply security, but the project too fast will cause damage to the new coal chemical industry. In view of this, in March this year, the National Development and Reform Commission set a threshold for related coal chemical projects, and will annually produce over 500,000 tons of methanol-to-olefins, with an annual output of 1 million tons of coal-to-methanol and coal-to-dimethyl ether, and other new coal chemical projects. The right to approve was uniformly received.
Du Minghua, an expert in the advanced energy technology field of the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, believes that the current industry consensus for the development of coal chemical industry is that under the demand of energy and materials for economic and social development, China’s coal chemical technology has achieved basic research through 10 years’ efforts. If the "11th Five-Year Plan" is an engineering demonstration stage, then the "12th Five-Year Plan" will enter a large-scale demonstration stage of industrialization and commercialization, but it is still not fully into the industrialization stage.
Therefore, the coal chemical industry must rationally improve its planning and avoid the old road of “build first and adjust laterâ€. Experts believe that to better regulate the development of the coal chemical industry in the future should start with the following aspects. First, we must speed up the preparation of relevant plans for promoting the scientific and healthy development of the coal chemical industry, introduce industrial policies, and specify the direction for the development of the coal chemical industry; the development of new types of coal chemical industry should aim at maximizing the energy conversion rate; the traditional fossil energy cannot be regenerated, and Increasingly scarce, the development of new types of coal chemical industry must choose the best way and product, so as to achieve full use of resources. It is necessary to measure the amount of coal and measure the amount of water. Different types of coal have their best use. It is best to develop coal chemical industry to make full use of inferior coal such as lignite, high*, high ash, etc. to achieve no competition with other industries. It is also necessary to combine the local water resources situation. Secondly, continue to increase the research and development of new coal chemical related process technologies and accumulate technical reserves. During this process, some demonstration projects for coal chemical products will be developed appropriately.
"China Securities Journal" reported recently that the "12th Five-Year Plan" coal chemical plan, which will receive much attention, will be issued at the right time within the year. In accordance with the principles set forth in the "Planning", the development of modern coal chemical industry will be changed from "modest" development of the previous adjustment to "prudent" development in the next five years. It can be predicted that in the next five years, the modern coal chemical industry represented by coal to olefins and coal-based natural gas will usher in a golden period of transition from demonstration to commercialization. On the other hand, it will also improve the project review standards and industrial development. At the same time with the adjustment period.
In fact, the phenomenon of Shanxi and Xinjiang is just a microcosm of China's coal chemical industry. As many coal chemical projects landed in various places, the disorderly development of the industry began to appear.
On the one hand, despite the prominent overcapacity problem in China's coal chemical industry, the development of this industry is still accelerating. According to data released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation in the first half of the year, the current national coal-to-olefins construction and proposed capacity of 28 million tons, coal-based oil under construction and proposed capacity of 40 million tons, coal-based natural gas The capacity under construction and proposed capacity is close to 150 billion cubic meters, and the coal-based ethylene glycol under construction and proposed capacity is over 5 million tons.
On the other hand, the lower start-up of the project launched is also a significant feature of the development of coal chemical industry. According to media reports, the actual capacity of coal-to-gas and coal-to-olefins projects planned in different regions is less than 10% of the actual start-up and start-up conditions. Under the background that modern coal chemical industry is subject to the bottleneck factors such as technology and energy consumption, many projects blindly launched by the company may not be able to smoothly reach production within the next five years.
Industry experts said that the lack of a clear strategic plan for the development of coal chemical industry in China is the root cause of the current chaos in the coal chemical industry. Among these, the biggest problem is that local interests do not harmonize with national interests. Some local governments only focus on immediate and partial interests, have resources to invest in projects, use project investment to drive GDP in the region, and lack overall strategic layout. In order to achieve economies of scale, some companies have won their opponents in the competition and are desperate to expand their capabilities.
Although long-term considerations, the development of new coal chemical industry is an important way to solve the shortage of China's oil and gas resources and achieve energy supply security, but the project too fast will cause damage to the new coal chemical industry. In view of this, in March this year, the National Development and Reform Commission set a threshold for related coal chemical projects, and will annually produce over 500,000 tons of methanol-to-olefins, with an annual output of 1 million tons of coal-to-methanol and coal-to-dimethyl ether, and other new coal chemical projects. The right to approve was uniformly received.
Du Minghua, an expert in the advanced energy technology field of the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, believes that the current industry consensus for the development of coal chemical industry is that under the demand of energy and materials for economic and social development, China’s coal chemical technology has achieved basic research through 10 years’ efforts. If the "11th Five-Year Plan" is an engineering demonstration stage, then the "12th Five-Year Plan" will enter a large-scale demonstration stage of industrialization and commercialization, but it is still not fully into the industrialization stage.
Therefore, the coal chemical industry must rationally improve its planning and avoid the old road of “build first and adjust laterâ€. Experts believe that to better regulate the development of the coal chemical industry in the future should start with the following aspects. First, we must speed up the preparation of relevant plans for promoting the scientific and healthy development of the coal chemical industry, introduce industrial policies, and specify the direction for the development of the coal chemical industry; the development of new types of coal chemical industry should aim at maximizing the energy conversion rate; the traditional fossil energy cannot be regenerated, and Increasingly scarce, the development of new types of coal chemical industry must choose the best way and product, so as to achieve full use of resources. It is necessary to measure the amount of coal and measure the amount of water. Different types of coal have their best use. It is best to develop coal chemical industry to make full use of inferior coal such as lignite, high*, high ash, etc. to achieve no competition with other industries. It is also necessary to combine the local water resources situation. Secondly, continue to increase the research and development of new coal chemical related process technologies and accumulate technical reserves. During this process, some demonstration projects for coal chemical products will be developed appropriately.
"China Securities Journal" reported recently that the "12th Five-Year Plan" coal chemical plan, which will receive much attention, will be issued at the right time within the year. In accordance with the principles set forth in the "Planning", the development of modern coal chemical industry will be changed from "modest" development of the previous adjustment to "prudent" development in the next five years. It can be predicted that in the next five years, the modern coal chemical industry represented by coal to olefins and coal-based natural gas will usher in a golden period of transition from demonstration to commercialization. On the other hand, it will also improve the project review standards and industrial development. At the same time with the adjustment period.
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