Today, China's photovoltaic industry presents the symptoms of investment bubbles and overcapacity, and local governments' investment in the photovoltaic industry is obviously radical. According to industry analysts, the technical bottleneck is the biggest weakness of China's current renewable energy development, and the core technology is about life and death. Today, the huge capacity of domestic PV companies depends mainly on the status of foreign markets, which may lead to external dependence on key technologies. It is hoped that the PV industry will be transformed from Chinese manufacturing to Chinese creation.
The new energy industry is seen as a “catalyst†for economic growth in the “post-financial crisis eraâ€. However, even this kind of “halo†industry that envelopes emerging strategic industries, high-tech environmental protection industries, renewable and sustainable industries needs to be overcome after overcoming the “failure†symptoms such as investment bubbles and overcapacity. Healthy development. China's photovoltaic industry is a microcosm of the development of new energy. Although it has not yet achieved a "soft landing" from the inertia of the rapid growth of the past few years, the industry is gradually calming down from fanaticism and passion to plan the future in a more rational way.
Real bubble or fake bubble
It is hard for ordinary people to think that the production of polycrystalline silicon for solar photovoltaic power generation will be the same as that of the traditional steel industry, and it will be “named†by the State Council as overcapacity and redundant construction. In the middle of last year, it has been showing the first "yellow card warning" for the rushing photovoltaic industry. The National Development and Reform Commission subsequently issued a planning document, pointing out that the photovoltaic industry should control production capacity and develop reasonably and healthily.
The main raw material for photovoltaic power generation is polysilicon. The data shows that China's polysilicon production was 60 tons in 2005, 287 tons in 2006, 1156 tons in 2007, and 4,000 tons in 2008. In the first half of 2009 alone, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are building, expanding and preparing polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 100,000 tons.
Shi Zhengrong, one of the “leading†of the domestic PV industry and chairman of Wuxi Suntech Power Co., said in a forum that only a few years later, China’s photovoltaic production capacity expanded drastically. In 2007 and 2008, the industry’s production capacity and output ranked World number one. He believes that "photovoltaic foam" has emerged. As the raw materials of polysilicon are all imported, China's photovoltaic industry has "great leap forward", which has made the price of raw materials from 50 US dollars per kilogram to 500 US dollars in the three years from 2006 to 2008.
To a certain extent, the financial crisis has blown away a lot of bubbles. During the tightening period of the “post-crisis eraâ€, there were once pessimistic estimates in the industry that at least 50% of small and medium-sized PV companies were facing production suspension. The price of raw materials in the international market also fell from the highest of $500/kg to $50/kg.
However, the industry's cooling seems to be only temporary. Since the beginning of this year, with the strong demand in the international market, polysilicon prices have begun to show signs of rebound. The news from photovoltaic companies such as Wuxi Suntech and Tuo Xinxin is also very optimistic. These companies, which have been worried about the decline in performance and losses since last year, are currently at full production, and some orders have already been placed next year.
A senior energy analyst at Industrial Securities believes that China is already the "most economical" manufacturing base for polysilicon solar energy in the world. In 2009, global solar cell production was around 10G watts, while China accounted for 40%. At the same time, as China's PV production is mainly based on exports, this round of industry recovery called “Second Spring†relies mainly on the recovery of international market demand.
The heat of expansion of the photovoltaic industry has not diminished, and the domestic "bubble" criticism is also endless. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that renewable energy, including photovoltaic solar energy, is positioned as a strategic emerging industry, but it is far from universal. In addition, the central government's policy of supporting new energy development will be constrained by financial resources. Meng Xianyu emphasized that the total amount of renewable energy exceeded the target, and the government could not acquire it. The development of new energy must match the national conditions. From the current practice, "local governments are obviously a little radical." In some places, the "three Gorges of the wind power" and "China Sun City", etc., the new energy projects on the fast-moving, are likely to be separated from the market's capacity.
Core technology is about life and death
As early as the bubble swelled, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Power Co., criticized that it usually takes two years or longer for PV companies to build factories, with funds ranging from 100 million to 300 million dollars. Under the temptation of profiteering, some investors And the entrepreneurs shortened the construction period to six months, resulting in environmental problems and quality problems.
He believes that for an emerging industry, "excess" is only a phased surplus, not a permanent surplus. The overcapacity of polysilicon pointed out by the State Council is actually "low-end overcapacity, inefficient overcapacity and inferior overcapacity." “From photovoltaic myth to photovoltaic foam may be just a step away.†Shi Zhengrong said that if this myth continues, it must rely on continuous innovation in technology, business models and international competitiveness. If you still only focus on manufacturing and do not pay attention to scientific research, resulting in "technical short legs", only pay attention to short-term interests and not pay attention to long-term benefits, it is "killing chickens and taking eggs."
It is understood that the core technology of polysilicon production - trichlorosilane reduction method is monopolized by a few companies in the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries, it is difficult for Chinese companies to obtain key technologies. The technical bottleneck is the biggest weakness of China's current renewable energy development. Some seniors in the energy industry have expressed some concern. The huge capacity of domestic PV companies depends mainly on the situation of foreign markets, which may cause external dependence on key technologies. If the country's overall arrangement is not in place, or if it is not implemented well in technology research and development, when the domestic market is heating up, and the “cake†of the new energy market will grow bigger, Chinese companies may only look at foreign companies with core technologies. Enjoy or divide, you can only stand by and watch, and finally pick a little cold and cold.
A new round of PV grid-connected power generation price bidding related to solar photovoltaic enterprises will soon be opened. Some insiders questioned that behind the idea of ​​pursuing the "low price bid", it is difficult for companies to have enough time and energy to complete the research and development of key technologies. Many companies have chosen to introduce advanced technology from abroad, so that they can be in the shortest Realize mass production of products in time and gain benefits. As everyone knows, the excessive dependence on foreign advanced technology will create greater resistance to the profit growth space and long-term development of enterprises. I hope that in the past, China will create a traditional image of cheap, high pollution and anti-dumping duties. Don't repeat itself in the emerging strategic industry of photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry has changed from manufacturing in China to creating in China.
"Outside the Han" also came to "gold rush"
The strong growth of the global photovoltaic terminal market has made this year a rare good for the photovoltaic industry. Listed companies have set off a new round of investment in the photovoltaic industry. Among them, Aerospace Electromechanical, which originally used auto parts and other major industries, through the allotment of shares, is expected to raise no more than 1.387 billion yuan, which is said to be mainly invested in the photovoltaic industry. Less than a year after entering the photovoltaic industry, two of the four production lines invested have not been completed and put into production. Hengdian East Magnetic recently announced the third investment in the photovoltaic field.
Another listed company, Sanan Optoelectronics, is currently negotiating a joint investment in the concentrating solar industry. Foshan Plastics intends to invest in a key material for the research and development of crystalline silicon solar cells. The emerging markets such as the United States and solar power have attracted the attention of a large number of domestic companies. Jinzhi Technology intends to invest in the United States with no more than 9 million US dollars to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary, specializing in US solar-related industry investment.
The new energy industry is seen as a “catalyst†for economic growth in the “post-financial crisis eraâ€. However, even this kind of “halo†industry that envelopes emerging strategic industries, high-tech environmental protection industries, renewable and sustainable industries needs to be overcome after overcoming the “failure†symptoms such as investment bubbles and overcapacity. Healthy development. China's photovoltaic industry is a microcosm of the development of new energy. Although it has not yet achieved a "soft landing" from the inertia of the rapid growth of the past few years, the industry is gradually calming down from fanaticism and passion to plan the future in a more rational way.
Real bubble or fake bubble
It is hard for ordinary people to think that the production of polycrystalline silicon for solar photovoltaic power generation will be the same as that of the traditional steel industry, and it will be “named†by the State Council as overcapacity and redundant construction. In the middle of last year, it has been showing the first "yellow card warning" for the rushing photovoltaic industry. The National Development and Reform Commission subsequently issued a planning document, pointing out that the photovoltaic industry should control production capacity and develop reasonably and healthily.
The main raw material for photovoltaic power generation is polysilicon. The data shows that China's polysilicon production was 60 tons in 2005, 287 tons in 2006, 1156 tons in 2007, and 4,000 tons in 2008. In the first half of 2009 alone, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are building, expanding and preparing polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 100,000 tons.
Shi Zhengrong, one of the “leading†of the domestic PV industry and chairman of Wuxi Suntech Power Co., said in a forum that only a few years later, China’s photovoltaic production capacity expanded drastically. In 2007 and 2008, the industry’s production capacity and output ranked World number one. He believes that "photovoltaic foam" has emerged. As the raw materials of polysilicon are all imported, China's photovoltaic industry has "great leap forward", which has made the price of raw materials from 50 US dollars per kilogram to 500 US dollars in the three years from 2006 to 2008.
To a certain extent, the financial crisis has blown away a lot of bubbles. During the tightening period of the “post-crisis eraâ€, there were once pessimistic estimates in the industry that at least 50% of small and medium-sized PV companies were facing production suspension. The price of raw materials in the international market also fell from the highest of $500/kg to $50/kg.
However, the industry's cooling seems to be only temporary. Since the beginning of this year, with the strong demand in the international market, polysilicon prices have begun to show signs of rebound. The news from photovoltaic companies such as Wuxi Suntech and Tuo Xinxin is also very optimistic. These companies, which have been worried about the decline in performance and losses since last year, are currently at full production, and some orders have already been placed next year.
A senior energy analyst at Industrial Securities believes that China is already the "most economical" manufacturing base for polysilicon solar energy in the world. In 2009, global solar cell production was around 10G watts, while China accounted for 40%. At the same time, as China's PV production is mainly based on exports, this round of industry recovery called “Second Spring†relies mainly on the recovery of international market demand.
The heat of expansion of the photovoltaic industry has not diminished, and the domestic "bubble" criticism is also endless. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that renewable energy, including photovoltaic solar energy, is positioned as a strategic emerging industry, but it is far from universal. In addition, the central government's policy of supporting new energy development will be constrained by financial resources. Meng Xianyu emphasized that the total amount of renewable energy exceeded the target, and the government could not acquire it. The development of new energy must match the national conditions. From the current practice, "local governments are obviously a little radical." In some places, the "three Gorges of the wind power" and "China Sun City", etc., the new energy projects on the fast-moving, are likely to be separated from the market's capacity.
Core technology is about life and death
As early as the bubble swelled, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Power Co., criticized that it usually takes two years or longer for PV companies to build factories, with funds ranging from 100 million to 300 million dollars. Under the temptation of profiteering, some investors And the entrepreneurs shortened the construction period to six months, resulting in environmental problems and quality problems.
He believes that for an emerging industry, "excess" is only a phased surplus, not a permanent surplus. The overcapacity of polysilicon pointed out by the State Council is actually "low-end overcapacity, inefficient overcapacity and inferior overcapacity." “From photovoltaic myth to photovoltaic foam may be just a step away.†Shi Zhengrong said that if this myth continues, it must rely on continuous innovation in technology, business models and international competitiveness. If you still only focus on manufacturing and do not pay attention to scientific research, resulting in "technical short legs", only pay attention to short-term interests and not pay attention to long-term benefits, it is "killing chickens and taking eggs."
It is understood that the core technology of polysilicon production - trichlorosilane reduction method is monopolized by a few companies in the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries, it is difficult for Chinese companies to obtain key technologies. The technical bottleneck is the biggest weakness of China's current renewable energy development. Some seniors in the energy industry have expressed some concern. The huge capacity of domestic PV companies depends mainly on the situation of foreign markets, which may cause external dependence on key technologies. If the country's overall arrangement is not in place, or if it is not implemented well in technology research and development, when the domestic market is heating up, and the “cake†of the new energy market will grow bigger, Chinese companies may only look at foreign companies with core technologies. Enjoy or divide, you can only stand by and watch, and finally pick a little cold and cold.
A new round of PV grid-connected power generation price bidding related to solar photovoltaic enterprises will soon be opened. Some insiders questioned that behind the idea of ​​pursuing the "low price bid", it is difficult for companies to have enough time and energy to complete the research and development of key technologies. Many companies have chosen to introduce advanced technology from abroad, so that they can be in the shortest Realize mass production of products in time and gain benefits. As everyone knows, the excessive dependence on foreign advanced technology will create greater resistance to the profit growth space and long-term development of enterprises. I hope that in the past, China will create a traditional image of cheap, high pollution and anti-dumping duties. Don't repeat itself in the emerging strategic industry of photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry has changed from manufacturing in China to creating in China.
"Outside the Han" also came to "gold rush"
The strong growth of the global photovoltaic terminal market has made this year a rare good for the photovoltaic industry. Listed companies have set off a new round of investment in the photovoltaic industry. Among them, Aerospace Electromechanical, which originally used auto parts and other major industries, through the allotment of shares, is expected to raise no more than 1.387 billion yuan, which is said to be mainly invested in the photovoltaic industry. Less than a year after entering the photovoltaic industry, two of the four production lines invested have not been completed and put into production. Hengdian East Magnetic recently announced the third investment in the photovoltaic field.
Another listed company, Sanan Optoelectronics, is currently negotiating a joint investment in the concentrating solar industry. Foshan Plastics intends to invest in a key material for the research and development of crystalline silicon solar cells. The emerging markets such as the United States and solar power have attracted the attention of a large number of domestic companies. Jinzhi Technology intends to invest in the United States with no more than 9 million US dollars to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary, specializing in US solar-related industry investment.
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