Lang Xianping: The photovoltaic industry can no longer be aggressive

According to media reports, following the announcement by the European Union on October 8 of the list of China's responding companies for anti-dumping photovoltaic sales, the US Department of Commerce announced on October 10 that it would impose a tariff of more than 30% on most solar products imported from China. This means that China's new energy industry, represented by the photovoltaic industry, has been completely blocked by the European and American anti-dumping measures. Why can China's new energy industry escape the anti-dumping lawsuits of Europe and the United States? The Chinese-style industrial upgrading is the “Great Leap Forward”, and the revitalization of industry is the “release of satellites”. It is subject to discrimination against the outside world and causes enormous waste internally. In this regard, I have discussed in detail in the book "The Chinese economy has reached the most dangerous edge."

On July 19, 2010, I issued an early warning on television programs to warn us that the economy will experience a double bottom. However, no one listened to me at all. The facts have proven that the revitalization of 4 trillion and 10 industries in 2009 was of no use at all, but we actually continued to invest 5 trillion yuan in energy in 2010. The National Energy Administration has compiled a plan for the development of emerging energy industries with a planning period of 2011-2020. The plan will cumulatively increase investment by 5 trillion yuan directly. Let's take a closer look at what we have: nuclear, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, unconventional natural gas and other new and renewable energy sources, clean coal, smart grids, distributed energy, automotive new energy Industrial applications such as new energy technologies.

On the surface, they are all new energy sources. In fact, I will give you an in-depth analysis. For example, if you look at wind power, you can see that the windmill actually understands that it consumes steel. I guess this is because we have to wait. Why? It is because our steel stocks are already shockingly large. According to the data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of May 2010, the five steel steel social inventories in the 26 major steel markets nationwide totaled 15.78 million tons, 5.5 times the same period in 2008. Therefore, it is now clear that the amount of credit for 2009 stimulates steel production rather than consumption. However, in 2010, we had installed the largest number of wind turbines in the world without any technology or experience. As a result, wind turbines in Inner Mongolia are idling, unable to access the grid and ease power shortages; Gansu's fan technology control is not up to standard, and it almost destroys the Northwest Power Grid twice!

On the surface is to develop new energy vehicles, in fact? To solve is the problem of overcapacity in the automotive industry. Our inventory of cars is now terrible. There are also investment in power stations that are actually designed to consume excess capacity in cement; investment in photovoltaics is to consume excess capacity in glass. Because the overcapacity in these industries has reached a very serious point. In other words, after investing 5 trillion yuan in investment, the benefits are all in the traditional industries with serious overcapacity. This is particularly worrying because our industrial policy has been kidnapped by vested interests. Now it is completely at the expense of taxpayers to engage in technological "great leap forward" and industry "put satellites."

I have also found a particularly strange phenomenon, that is, as long as it is said to invest in emerging industries, there will be a group of people who are particularly excited and willing to spend money. This group of people is not yet our entrepreneur, but a local official who is eager for achievements. Because our local officials are more likely to be overwhelmed, they are more likely to find opportunities to “carry over”. You can go and search for the slogan "Curve overtaking," which is basically emphasized repeatedly by party newspapers everywhere. Then I ask this group of people. Are you an entrepreneur? Are you an entrepreneur? Why do you think you have vision and can you see good projects? And this project happens to not be optimistic about the existing companies, happens to be able to make money? In fact, we can completely think from another perspective. If government officials use fiscal investment projects, select projects, and manage projects effectively, private companies can basically close their doors.

What's the most scary? It is a combination of two people. One is a performance-oriented official who does not understand anything but has a lot of financial resources in his hands, and the other is what entrepreneurial morality does not matter for entrepreneurs who just want to take the opportunity to lie. Of course, there are some who want to make money, such as private business owners, while others are trying to cheat performance, such as the owner of a state-owned company. As a result, there emerged the “Great Leap Forward” in the world of wonders. For example, in the electric car industry, the planning for the revitalization of the automobile industry in the top 10 industrial plans in 2009 was to transform the existing production capacity to form 500,000 pure electric and rechargeable hybrids. The production capacity of new-energy automobiles, such as ordinary hybrid vehicles, makes sales of new energy vehicles account for about 5% of the total passenger car sales.

I am very curious that electric vehicles have been used in Japan and the United States. Finally, the performance of the products has been found to be unstable, and as soon as the price of oil falls, nobody buys them. Why are we spending so much energy on this stuff? What's more, we now rely on thermal power for power generation. The pollution and carbon emissions from this type of power generation are much more powerful than those from automobile fuel. The so-called low-carbon environment is totally nonsense! I don’t know why we have the confidence to say that we must surpass the United Kingdom in this field. We must know that from charge, power storage, and circuit management, we have not yet conquered so many technologies, and even if they are overcome in the future, this is There is also a need for greater infrastructure investment in the promotion process, which means that there can be no broad foreign market. However, for this “Great Leap Forward”, we are now simply lifting the nation’s strength. The central government has explicitly decided to invest 10 billion yuan for three consecutive years. In addition, it also provided 80 billion yuan in technological innovation discounts.

The results are basically expected. The two goals of 500,000 vehicles and 5% have not yet been reached. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounts for 7% of the total sales volume of 700,000 cars. Now, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is only about 10,000 vehicles a year. Moreover, the production capacity of car-based new energy vehicles is currently far less than 500,000 vehicles. At the end of 2010, a total of 190 models of 54 automobile manufacturers were included in the Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion, Application and Promotion of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles. The annual output of the above models was 7,181 units.

Objectively speaking, such a small number of tram sales is certainly not our policy is not in place, because at present Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing’s support for electric vehicles has been very strong: the purchase of electric vehicles in Beijing and Shenzhen can get a maximum subsidy of 120,000 yuan; Shanghai Can get 100,000 yuan subsidy. But electric cars are still not attractive. According to relevant sources of China Southern Power Grid, more than 2,000 charging piles already built in Shenzhen are basically idle.

The most fundamental reason is that this thing is really too insignificant. Zotye built a pure electric vehicle. The Hangzhou Municipal Government spent a lot of effort to promote it and required taxis to take the lead to demonstrate. A fire broke out, scared the driver to demonstrate, and made the government very faceless. In addition, these companies deceived financial support when they vowed to ensure that a pure electric vehicle can be recharged for 160 kilometers. As a result, it can only run 100 kilometers. This means that the radius of activity is only 50 kilometers. Can't come back.

Finally, talk about wind power. On February 24, 2011, the Northwest Power Grid, Gansu Jiuquan Wind Power Base, suffered a breakdown due to the first wind farm at the west of the bridge, resulting in the loss of 598 wind turbines, the loss of power of 840,000 kilowatts, the large fluctuations in voltage, and even the voltage of the Gansu power grid. Frequency control, ** to the entire power system security. On April 6, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission held an accident briefing in Beijing and finally summarized four major issues: the equipment design itself was unqualified, the quality of wind farm construction was unqualified, and the integration of wind farms was unsafe for the power grid as a whole. Institutions do not have sufficient capacity to manage wind farms. The accident was China's "Fukushima nuclear crisis." The Fukushima nuclear crisis called for a "Great Leap Forward" in China's nuclear power, and Jiuquan's wind power accident was a halt to the "Great Leap Forward" in China's wind power.

Speaking of this, I will comb my ideas again. We use high-speed rail investment as the carrier to drive the five industries of steel, equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, shipping and logistics in the top ten industries. Electric vehicles are driving the automotive industry. Of course, the automotive industry has also brought petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals and steel in the way. Photovoltaic power has led to equipment manufacturing and electronic information. Wind power and nuclear power have driven equipment manufacturing, steel and non-ferrous metals. One of the top ten industries is textiles. Unfortunately, it was not spared because we did not have pricing rights. After the international cotton price rose sharply, our textile companies also wanted to cry.

The losses caused to us by these industries have already become a reality. I have nothing to say, but we must eat at least one thing and grow up. In the year of the "Great Leap Forward," we paid a heavy price for it. Why should we continue to "leap the Great Leap Forward" today?