Abstract With the release of effective production capacity at home and abroad, the price mechanism and supply and demand characteristics of the polysilicon industry tend to be stable and mature. In the history of polysilicon prices, there have been two strong periods of large amplitude rise and fall, because the terminal demand follows the short-term impact of subsidy policy changes, while polysilicon is short-term...
With the effective production capacity at home and abroad, the price mechanism and supply and demand characteristics of the polysilicon industry tend to be stable and mature. In the history of polysilicon prices, there have been two strong periods of large-scale rise and fall. The reason is that the terminal demand follows the short-term impact of subsidy policy changes, while the short-term supply of polysilicon is rigid, and its long construction period has nothing to match current demand fluctuations. After the domestic polysilicon investment boom, the cost-competitive effective production capacity is increasing, the supply-demand relationship transitions from the pure seller market to the buyer's market, and the first-tier manufacturers enjoy reasonable profit margins in the industrial chain. During the downturn of polysilicon, the price of the products was lower than the cash cost of most enterprises. A large number of small factories shut down and the industry shuffled and effectively shuffled. In the first half of 2011-2013, the European PV market has come to a standstill and the domestic PV market is still in its infancy, with a serious overcapacity in all aspects of domestic manufacturing. Polysilicon prices have entered the yin channel, selling prices and production costs are upside down, and cost control has become the first major competitive factor. More than 80% of the small projects that have been rushed to the domestic market have become the inefficient production capacity of the chicken ribs. A large number of enterprises have entered the technical shutdown of maintenance and repair. The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry is extremely low. At the lowest level, only 4 to 5 enterprises are still operating.
After the big wave of sand washing in the domestic polysilicon industry, several first-tier echelon companies with cost advantages against foreign capital have been born. Although China's earlier polysilicon investment has repeatedly repeated low-level construction, there are a few outstanding enterprises in the middle that focus on technological innovation, talent team construction and on-site production operation management, by controlling raw material costs, reducing energy consumption, achieving operational scale economic benefits and simplifying production processes. Continue to reduce costs in all aspects. Domestic polysilicon leading enterprises represented by GCL-Poly, Daxin Energy, TBEA (10.04, 0.07, 0.70%), etc., their production capacity scale and cost control level have already presented oligopoly status in the country, capital of technology, capital, etc. The factors are positively clustered and the industry is entering a positive incentive cycle.
Since the second half of 2013, the photovoltaic industry has entered a new round of booming, and the regional distribution of polysilicon industry has shifted from Europe and the United States to the Asian market. The number of domestic re-production manufacturers has increased. At this stage, China, Japan and the United States have been newly promoted to the top three global demand countries, and the Chinese market is the leader. From the perspective of the global industrial distribution of polysilicon, the main production capacity in Europe and the United States has shrunk, and the effective production capacity in the Asian market is rising. After the demand for photovoltaics in China was ignited in 2013-2014, the number of manufacturers of polysilicon production has increased gradually, currently reaching 15 to 16 levels, but the first echelon enterprises have a combined production capacity and output ratio of 60% due to cost and scale advantages. -70%.
After the polysilicon import vulnerability is blocked, the short-term demand gap will be released in 4Q 2014, and the polysilicon price will be bullish at the end of the year. Between 2009 and 2013, domestic polysilicon imports accounted for 40-50% of total domestic demand, and overseas polysilicon manufacturers evaded double-reverse by drilling legal loopholes. In August 2014, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would suspend the import of polysilicon processing trade from September 1. It is expected that the US will release about 10,000 tons of silicon material supply gap. It is expected that domestic polysilicon plants will not release new capacity in the second half of the year. Short-term supply and demand imbalance. 4Q polysilicon prices are bullish to $24-25/kg, or will significantly increase domestic companies' quarterly earnings.
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