Energy conservation and emission reduction lower coal demand

Since September, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, and other places have introduced strict electricity restriction policies. Due to capacity reduction, on the one hand, the price of coal downstream industries such as cement and steel has been pushed up. On the other hand, coal demand has been pulled down, which makes coal The industry has entered the period of "quantity game".

As the prices of cement and steel rose sharply, the prices of different types of coal rose.

According to statistics, the settlement price of Shanxi High-grade Coal on September 13 fell by 0.7% qoq to RMB 715/t. The price of thermal coal pits in the southern suburbs of Datong remained unchanged. Steam coal prices remained unchanged in most parts of the country; coal prices in Xinjiang and Qinghai provinces rose.

At the same time, the price of coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of coal injected rose sharply. Among them, the price of coal injected from Shanxi and Hebei increased by about 5% on a week-to-week basis. The coke prices in Yunnan and Linyi increased by 2% on a week-on-week basis. D3%.

It is worth mentioning that Qinhuangdao port stocks continued to climb. As of September 13, inventory was 7.68 million tons, which was a 7.0% increase on a week-on-week basis. As of September 9, coal inventories in Guangzhou Port increased by 2.152 million tons to 2.749 million tons. The increase was 8.49% month-on-month, and the high inventory levels at various ports created obvious pressure on future coal prices, particularly coal prices.

In addition, the coal consumption of the central direct power supply plant has recently declined, and the average coal consumption (old caliber) from August 29 to September 5 was 15.7 million tons, which is relative to the weekly consumption from August 22 to August 29. The amount of coal fell by 150,000 tons, a decrease of 0.95%, which also put pressure on coal prices, especially coal prices.

Moreover, industry experts predict that under the pressure of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” for energy conservation and emission reduction, the shutdown of some high-energy-consuming enterprises will continue until the end of September, even at the end of this year, which will affect the coal demand in the coming months.

According to the analysis, considering that electricity coal is subject to the end of the peak season, approaching holidays, high inventory levels, energy saving and emission reduction, and sufficient hydropower generation, there is still room for price fall; while coking coal stocks are low, and market concentration is high, downstream steel prices continue Rising, it is expected that although the price will fall, but there is little room.

In addition, while the power cut policy has pulled down coal demand, the coal-producing province seems to be intentionally adjusting the pace of coal supply, which in turn forms support for coal prices.

It is reported that on the 8th of last week, the Shanxi Provincial Government approved the "Circular on Strengthening the Merger and Reorganization and Integration of Mine Safety Work in the Office of the Leading Group for the Integration and Restructuring of Coal Mining Enterprises in Shanxi Province", requesting the closure of the coal mine and the inclusion of the list of closures. The 547 mines produced during the transition period will ensure that no production conditions will be met until September 15. In addition, "review" the 374 mines that have been closed to ensure that all "closed"

In this regard, analysts believe that part of Shanxi's integrated coal mine during the transition period will be completely shut down by the end of this year, will partially reduce the supply in 2011, and therefore do not worry about the recent adjustment of coal prices, on the contrary, "expected 2011 policy end of limits After that, coal demand will rebound and the overall coal price in 2011 will be optimistic.