At this time of the previous year, it was the deadline for the iron ore negotiations. A 30% or 50% increase is a bitter choice for China's steel industry. However, this year's situation is very different: as China's economic growth rate has fallen steadily, steel companies have cut production and production, and the crazy stone has finally bowed. A drop of 5% or 10% has become a new topic for discussion in the industry. Hundreds of tons of stocks under pressure iron ore rebound short-lived In the recent exchanges with investors, mining giant Rio Tinto executives expressed concern about the slowdown in demand for commodities: "In the face of global economic uncertainty, customers are becoming more and more The more cautious it is.†Rio Tinto’s concern is based on the fact that since October this year, the price of iron ore, which has been consolidating at a high level, has fallen sharply, from the previous high of $190/ton to once slipped to $130/ton. Although it has rebounded, it is quite short-lived. It stops at the $150/ton line and does not return to the madness of the past. "Iron ore can't be sold." Many traders agreed. According to the latest statistics of the “Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Indexâ€, the current iron ore inventory of coastal ports has exceeded 100 million tons, which is at the historical peak level. This inventory means that Chinese steel mills can spend two months even if they don't import a ton of mine. Although the central bank recently announced the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, it has stimulated the commodity market. However, as far as the steel industry is concerned, the overall situation is still in the process of “destockingâ€, and the impact is very limited. Sheng Zhicheng, assistant general manager of the steel spot trading platform “Xiben Shinkansenâ€, said that the purchasing enthusiasm of the steel mill did not strengthen with the rebound of the mining price. The pattern of “selling goods to be up†by traders has been hit, and the enthusiasm for speculation in mine prices has subsided. According to the quarterly pricing model, this will be reflected in the iron ore price next year. Hu Yanping, an analyst at China United Steel, said: "We expect the average price of iron ore imports next year to be 140-145 US dollars / ton, down 7%-10% compared with this year. From the perspective of the annual price trend, it is likely to be low before Gao.†Whoever cuts production first and loses money? The steel industry is breaking the cycle. “What happened in China’s steel industry?†This is a question raised by a mining giant sales manager at an internal seminar. Indeed, although China’s economy is decelerating, it is still expected to maintain a high growth rate of over 9% this year. As for next year, the GDP growth forecast given by most institutions is between 8.5% and 9%, which is still not low. In fact, what is more important than the growth figure is the change in the way of growth. Over the years, iron ore has risen more than a year in a year. In addition to the monopoly of the mine, it is indeed blamed on China’s “appetiteâ€. Li Shijun, chief analyst of China Steel Association, once ridiculed that in the steel industry for decades, it is difficult to guess the growth rate of steel output in the next year – often underestimating the local investment impulse, often exceeding expectations. It is precisely because of this inertia that the Chinese steel industry has gradually formed a strange circle: whenever the market is not good, steel prices are low to loss, there are always calls for production cuts, but no one is willing to be the leader. Everyone is calculating: After others reduce production and stimulate steel prices to rise, they benefit themselves. However, this year's situation has completely smashed this "small cleverness": monitoring shows that when the "Golden September and Silver 10" was supposed to be the peak season of consumption, the domestic steel price plummeted more than 500 yuan / ton, a large extent, directly in the financial crisis. The momentum. Those manufacturers who produce at full capacity are naturally the first to suffer. According to data disclosed by China Steel Association, the profitability of the steel industry in October fell to a record low. The profit margin of 77 large and medium-sized steel mills in the month was only 0.47%, and the profit was 1.375 billion yuan, down 82.6% from the previous month. Of the 77 companies, 25 lost money, with a loss of 2.125 billion yuan and a loss of more than 30%. Such bleak financial statements are enough for Chinese steel mills to reflect on the way they used to “expand production†to gain growth. At present, improving product quality and developing non-steel industry are becoming new keywords in the industry. Statistics show that the average daily crude steel output in November has fallen below 1.7 million tons, down more than 10% from the previous period, which is the new low level during the year. Some small and medium-sized steel mills with flexible responses have arranged production rhythms according to market conditions and have achieved better profitability than large steel mills. What is the opportunity for the steel industry under the “broken net†tide? “It may be difficult for iron ore to return to the high of $190/ton, but its price fluctuations will become more frequent. For Chinese steel mills, the challenge will not change. Small," said Hu Kai, a senior researcher at iron ore. The capital market has already reflected this pessimistic expectation: with the stock index falling, steel stocks have “brokenâ€. Among them, Valin's P/B ratio once fell to 0.63 times, which is the bottom of the two cities. Baosteel, the industry leader, has not been spared. The current net asset value per share is 6 yuan, and the stock price is less than 5 yuan. Is the prospect of China's steel industry really so bad? The mine may not look like this. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are still pushing ahead with the expansion plan, because China's urbanization rate will be able to break through 50% by the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and it will take time for steel demand to peak. During this period of adjustment, steel companies committed to improving product quality still have opportunities. For example, although China has been able to develop and produce high-end automotive steel, silicon steel sheet and other high-end products, the self-sufficiency rate is only 40%-60%, and the future target should be increased to over 90%. Looking outward, the market prospects are broader. At present, the demand of emerging economies is still growing steadily. Under the influence of the financial crisis, advanced economies are calling for “re-industrializationâ€. All of this has created space for the Chinese steel capital to go out. At present, the internationalization level of China's steel industry is very low. For example, Nippon Steel has a manufacturing facility in the United States, and South Korea’s Posco has expanded its Southeast Asian market. In contrast, in China, the earliest Baosteel planned to build a factory in Brazil in 2007, but it was finally declared dead. However, as Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel, said, internationalization can transfer some excess capacity and reduce domestic resource consumption and environmental load. With Anshan Iron and Steel and WISCO launching plans to build factories in the United States and Brazil, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will become a critical period for the internationalization of China's steel industry. The emergence of multinational steel groups is not a dream.
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