Although the peak of electricity consumption has not yet arrived, there will be major changes in thermal coal this year.
Guo Yuntao, deputy director of the General Office of the State Administration of Work Safety, predicts that China will become the world's largest coal importer after China's net import of coal of 103 million tons last year, with a net import of 170 million tons.
Considering that coal demand and imports will increase during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, how to establish a coal supply system that is economical, clean, safe, stable and reliable in the next step becomes a problem that needs attention.
Correspondingly, if nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, etc. are not followed up as soon as possible in order to achieve national carbon emission reduction targets, it may be more difficult to guarantee the supply of coal. "If other new energy sources fail to meet the expected scale targets, the demand for coal may increase." Guo Yuntao said at the 2010 China Coal Mergers and Reorganization Summit held on June 5 and 6.
According to the understanding, China’s primary energy consumption in 2009 has exceeded 3 billion tons. Fossil energy accounts for 91%. Among them, coal accounted for 68.7%, oil accounted for 18%, natural gas accounted for 3.4%, non-fossil energy, renewable energy consumption only 9.9%.
Although China's water, wind, solar and other resources are abundant, including nuclear power can also accelerate construction, but if the investment can not achieve the expected results, and can not be integrated into the grid, then coal will still account for a high proportion of the entire primary energy. This will put pressure on the completion of the 2020 carbon target.
Coal demand continues to increase
The National Energy Administration and other departments are stepping up research on the “12th Five-Year Plan†energy and related projects such as coal. According to the current preliminary research, coal demand will continue to grow rapidly during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, so how to ensure the effective supply of coal in the next step is a major issue.
With the “Twelfth Five-Year†GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the average annual growth rate is 8%, the energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by 3.7% per year, and the energy elasticity coefficient (the ratio of energy growth to GDP growth rate) is calculated as 0.51, and by 2015. China's primary energy consumption will reach 4.2 billion tons of standard coal.
According to preliminary estimates by the national energy sector, it is estimated that by 2015, hydropower, wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, and oil and gas will have limited energy capacity in total primary energy demand.
It is estimated that by 2015, hydropower can provide 260 million tons of standard coal supply capacity, wind power can provide 57 million tons of standard coal supply capacity, other biomass energy has 20 million tons of standard coal, nuclear power has 68 million tons of standard coal, oil and gas There are 200 million tons of standard coal.
In total, there is a total supply capacity of 514 million tons of standard coal, and the remaining 2.68 billion tons of energy supply is required for coal supply, which is 3.8 billion tons of coal.
In 2009, China's raw coal production reached 3 billion tons. If the demand for coal in 3.8 billion tons is needed in 2015, in addition to the need to speed up production in China, foreign imports also need to increase, but this may encounter the problem of raising prices in the international market. At present, the global trade volume is about 800 million tons, and China's net import of 100 million tons of coal. Some experts in Japan expect China's imported coal to reach 800-100 million tons in the next 10-15 years.
"If Japanese experts say that China imports a large amount of coal, it will inevitably lead to prices raised by foreign countries like iron ore," said Guo Yuntao, deputy director of the General Office of the State Administration of Work Safety.
Increased pressure on energy structure adjustment
Regardless of whether the above situation becomes a reality, it will be an indisputable fact that the industry and energy structure adjustment pressures will increase during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
Taking coal as an example, there are currently 315 large-scale coal mines under construction of 1.2 million tons, with an annual production capacity of 670 million tons. The national “12th Five-Year Plan†is expected to increase the proportion of large-scale coal mines to more than 50%, while all of them will be closed at 300,000 tons. The following coal mines. At present, small coal mines below 450,000 tons still account for the majority.
Relevant national authorities will soon introduce a policy to accelerate coal production safety, increase large coal production capacity, and comprehensively utilize coal resources. It is expected to accelerate the development and utilization of coalbed methane in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, and the comprehensive recovery rate of coal resource exploitation will also reach more than 50%.
The state has also decided to include Xinjiang in the national large-scale coal base plan. So far, the country's large-scale coal industry base will reach 14. “However, many small mines still provide a large supply of coal for the time being, and if they are cancelled in the short term, it will lead to tight coal demand,†said one analyst.
It is reported that the national “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†proposes that the coal production plan for 2010 will be 2.6 billion tons, and the actual output this year will reach 3.2 billion tons, exceeding 600 million tons. The coal demand planned during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is 3.8 billion tons. If this figure is significantly broken, it may lead to an increase in the structural adjustment of the domestic coal industry.
"The 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' is pushing down the coal (planning), and the actual number is far from being broken. The '12th Five-Year' will not be able to lower the coal because the energy demand is rigid," said Fang Junshi, Director of the Coal Department of the National Energy Administration.
In fact, this kind of difficulty in adjusting the structure of the coal industry is also present in the power and other energy fields.
For example, in 2006-2009, the country has eliminated 60 million kilowatts of small thermal power, and this year it is ready to phase out more than 10 million kilowatts. However, there are currently only 70 million kilowatts of pure-condensed thermal power units with a single unit of less than 300,000 kilowatts. The average size of thermal power units is only 103,100 kilowatts. Many of these units belong to the independent power grid, or at the end of the grid, or have not expired. Big.
In this regard, Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously stressed that with the deepening of the shutdown work, the geographical distribution of the active small thermal power units is more dispersed, and the difficulty of centralized construction is further increased, which has affected the enthusiasm of enterprises to shut down.
However, the next provincial authorities should speed up the shutdown of the shutdown group and accept social supervision. "All regions and related enterprises must formulate a careful plan, do a good job, and ensure that the shutdown tasks are completed on schedule. Prevent the resurgence of small thermal power units."
Guo Yuntao, deputy director of the General Office of the State Administration of Work Safety, predicts that China will become the world's largest coal importer after China's net import of coal of 103 million tons last year, with a net import of 170 million tons.
Considering that coal demand and imports will increase during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, how to establish a coal supply system that is economical, clean, safe, stable and reliable in the next step becomes a problem that needs attention.
Correspondingly, if nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, etc. are not followed up as soon as possible in order to achieve national carbon emission reduction targets, it may be more difficult to guarantee the supply of coal. "If other new energy sources fail to meet the expected scale targets, the demand for coal may increase." Guo Yuntao said at the 2010 China Coal Mergers and Reorganization Summit held on June 5 and 6.
According to the understanding, China’s primary energy consumption in 2009 has exceeded 3 billion tons. Fossil energy accounts for 91%. Among them, coal accounted for 68.7%, oil accounted for 18%, natural gas accounted for 3.4%, non-fossil energy, renewable energy consumption only 9.9%.
Although China's water, wind, solar and other resources are abundant, including nuclear power can also accelerate construction, but if the investment can not achieve the expected results, and can not be integrated into the grid, then coal will still account for a high proportion of the entire primary energy. This will put pressure on the completion of the 2020 carbon target.
Coal demand continues to increase
The National Energy Administration and other departments are stepping up research on the “12th Five-Year Plan†energy and related projects such as coal. According to the current preliminary research, coal demand will continue to grow rapidly during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, so how to ensure the effective supply of coal in the next step is a major issue.
With the “Twelfth Five-Year†GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the average annual growth rate is 8%, the energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by 3.7% per year, and the energy elasticity coefficient (the ratio of energy growth to GDP growth rate) is calculated as 0.51, and by 2015. China's primary energy consumption will reach 4.2 billion tons of standard coal.
According to preliminary estimates by the national energy sector, it is estimated that by 2015, hydropower, wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, and oil and gas will have limited energy capacity in total primary energy demand.
It is estimated that by 2015, hydropower can provide 260 million tons of standard coal supply capacity, wind power can provide 57 million tons of standard coal supply capacity, other biomass energy has 20 million tons of standard coal, nuclear power has 68 million tons of standard coal, oil and gas There are 200 million tons of standard coal.
In total, there is a total supply capacity of 514 million tons of standard coal, and the remaining 2.68 billion tons of energy supply is required for coal supply, which is 3.8 billion tons of coal.
In 2009, China's raw coal production reached 3 billion tons. If the demand for coal in 3.8 billion tons is needed in 2015, in addition to the need to speed up production in China, foreign imports also need to increase, but this may encounter the problem of raising prices in the international market. At present, the global trade volume is about 800 million tons, and China's net import of 100 million tons of coal. Some experts in Japan expect China's imported coal to reach 800-100 million tons in the next 10-15 years.
"If Japanese experts say that China imports a large amount of coal, it will inevitably lead to prices raised by foreign countries like iron ore," said Guo Yuntao, deputy director of the General Office of the State Administration of Work Safety.
Increased pressure on energy structure adjustment
Regardless of whether the above situation becomes a reality, it will be an indisputable fact that the industry and energy structure adjustment pressures will increase during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
Taking coal as an example, there are currently 315 large-scale coal mines under construction of 1.2 million tons, with an annual production capacity of 670 million tons. The national “12th Five-Year Plan†is expected to increase the proportion of large-scale coal mines to more than 50%, while all of them will be closed at 300,000 tons. The following coal mines. At present, small coal mines below 450,000 tons still account for the majority.
Relevant national authorities will soon introduce a policy to accelerate coal production safety, increase large coal production capacity, and comprehensively utilize coal resources. It is expected to accelerate the development and utilization of coalbed methane in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, and the comprehensive recovery rate of coal resource exploitation will also reach more than 50%.
The state has also decided to include Xinjiang in the national large-scale coal base plan. So far, the country's large-scale coal industry base will reach 14. “However, many small mines still provide a large supply of coal for the time being, and if they are cancelled in the short term, it will lead to tight coal demand,†said one analyst.
It is reported that the national “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†proposes that the coal production plan for 2010 will be 2.6 billion tons, and the actual output this year will reach 3.2 billion tons, exceeding 600 million tons. The coal demand planned during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is 3.8 billion tons. If this figure is significantly broken, it may lead to an increase in the structural adjustment of the domestic coal industry.
"The 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' is pushing down the coal (planning), and the actual number is far from being broken. The '12th Five-Year' will not be able to lower the coal because the energy demand is rigid," said Fang Junshi, Director of the Coal Department of the National Energy Administration.
In fact, this kind of difficulty in adjusting the structure of the coal industry is also present in the power and other energy fields.
For example, in 2006-2009, the country has eliminated 60 million kilowatts of small thermal power, and this year it is ready to phase out more than 10 million kilowatts. However, there are currently only 70 million kilowatts of pure-condensed thermal power units with a single unit of less than 300,000 kilowatts. The average size of thermal power units is only 103,100 kilowatts. Many of these units belong to the independent power grid, or at the end of the grid, or have not expired. Big.
In this regard, Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously stressed that with the deepening of the shutdown work, the geographical distribution of the active small thermal power units is more dispersed, and the difficulty of centralized construction is further increased, which has affected the enthusiasm of enterprises to shut down.
However, the next provincial authorities should speed up the shutdown of the shutdown group and accept social supervision. "All regions and related enterprises must formulate a careful plan, do a good job, and ensure that the shutdown tasks are completed on schedule. Prevent the resurgence of small thermal power units."
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