Abstract On May 5, 2016, the "Real Estate Blue Book: China Real Estate Development Report No. 13 (2016)" conference hosted by the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House was held in Beijing. The real estate market has passed a...
On May 5, 2016, the "Real Estate Blue Book: China Real Estate Development Report No. 13 (2016)" conference hosted by the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House was held in Beijing. After more than a year of adjustment in the real estate market, in 2015, the transaction price of commercial housing sales rose overall, the sales price of residential and office buildings increased, while the sales price of commercial business buildings fell; the sales volume of commercial housing increased from negative to positive. The sales volume of office buildings increased significantly. Real estate inventory levels are still high, but the growth rate has dropped significantly, and the inventory of commercial properties is more severe than that of residential buildings. The increase in housing rents narrowed slightly, which was significantly lower than the increase in housing prices, but still higher than the increase in CPI; real estate development investment was sluggish, residential investment was close to zero growth; in the source of development funds, sales receipts increased significantly, funds from other sources shrank; land purchases Both the area and the transaction price of the land have fallen sharply, but the average transaction price of the land has increased more than the sales price of commercial housing; the new construction area of ​​the house has declined across the board, and the construction area has increased slightly, and it is still in the inventory decontamination period.
Looking forward to 2016, due to a series of uncertainties and trend factors, the world economic growth situation is still not optimistic. As a part of the generalized capital market, real estate risks will continue to increase. Since the international financial crisis in 2008, China's GDP growth rate has been in a downward range. In 2015, China's GDP growth rate fell below 7%. The continued macroeconomic downturn in 2016 will be a high probability event, which will lead to further reductions in real estate price expectations, slower housing demand growth, and downward pressure on the real estate market.
From a policy perspective, supply-side reforms will be implemented in the long run by stimulating demand through monetary or fiscal policies. That is, on the one hand, “destocking†around real estate, continue to implement loose fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate market demand, and maintain market activity; on the other hand, around the reform of real estate supply side, implement classified regulation to moderately moderate regional differentiation, hot and cold Uneven phenomenon, maintaining market stability will be the keynote of 2016 real estate policy: For first-tier cities and some demand hotspots, the second-tier cities will continue to implement the purchase restriction policy, and even introduce relevant policies to curb the overheating of the first-line market to prevent excessive investment demand. The increase is too high; most second- and third- and fourth-tier cities are mainly to stimulate demand and destocking, and the purchase of houses, tax and fee reduction, financial subsidy policies, and supporting measures such as education and medical care are expected to be fully rolled out everywhere.
From the perspective of market performance, driven by positive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, the real estate market has gradually stabilized in 2016: real estate investment has stopped falling and the real estate investment has stopped falling, and developers have gradually restored investment confidence under the strong sales in the first and second-tier markets; With the further release of speculative demand and improved housing demand, real estate sales will further increase; real estate destocking in third- and fourth-tier cities is difficult to make breakthrough progress; as policy stimulus effects decline, real estate sales have a risk of falling again; Housing prices in some second-tier cities will continue to rise, but the rate of increase will slow down; housing prices in second-tier cities will rise across the board, and the areas of growth will be more differentiated; in third- and fourth-tier cities, stocks will be reduced due to loose policies, and real estate prices will gradually decline. Narrowed and stabilized. However, in the longer term, if macroeconomic growth continues to decline, real estate prices are likely to see a full-scale decline in the second half of 2017.
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