Steel prices rise significantly weak

On September 6th, the latest weekly analysis report issued by the famous Nisshin Shinkansen spot trading platform reported that the prices of billet, scrap and imported iron ore in the domestic market fell slightly this week, and coal and coke continued to make up the increase. positive. Domestic iron ore prices fluctuated slightly this week, and the price of imported ore fell slightly. As of this Friday, the purchase price of 66% Fe fine powder in Tangshan Steel Plant in Hebei Province has remained at around 1,070 yuan/ton, that of steel mills in Tangshan District has increased by 100,000 tons to 6.15 million tons, and that of domestic mines has dropped by 100,000 tons to 400,000 tons. The price of 66% Fe fine powder in Liaoning Province dropped by RMB 10 to RMB 980/ton.

As for raw materials, domestic coke prices rose slightly. As of this Friday, the price of the secondary metallurgical coke (A: 13.5%) in Shanxi Province has risen to about RMB 1140/ton, and that of the primary metallurgical coke (A: 12.5%) has been RMB 1,260/ton, which is widely quoted by coking companies. The price of primary metallurgical coke in Hebei and Liaoning increased to RMB 1410 to RMB14,130 per ton, up RMB 30/t, and the inventory of 10 coke in 10 leading steel mills in Tangshan maintained 550,000 tons.

This week, the coal market rose in an all-round way. Shanxi Coking Coal Group raised the price of main coking coal by 20 yuan, the price of main coking coal in Tunlan reached 1080-1130 yuan per ton (railway), and the price of main coking coal by Hebei Kaiyuan Group increased by 5 yuan to 1,045 yuan. Tons; Henan Pingdingshan Coal Coking Group's main coking coal prices rose 30 yuan to 1,120 yuan / ton; Heilongjiang Longco Coal Group, the main coking coal prices rose 30 yuan to 1,300 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic steel price has been loosened, and although the price of coal coke has increased, the pressure is gradually increasing. The coke market is expected to rise steadily in the next week, and the price of coking coal will temporarily stabilize.

Affected by the rise in coke prices, the production costs of domestic steel mills rose again this week. As of this Friday, the production cost of rebar with an annual production capacity of more than 10 million tons of steel is about RMB 3,661/ton, which is RMB 13/ton higher than that at the end of last week; the production cost of rebar from steel mills with annual production capacity of 5 to 10 million tons is approximately RMB 3569/tonne was RMB 14/t higher than last weekend; the rebar production cost with an annual production capacity of less than 5 million tons of steel was about RMB 3,485/ton, up RMB 14/ton from the previous weekend. The average price of tertiary rebar in the domestic market this Friday was 3627 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, corresponding to the cost of raw materials 20 days ago. Small and medium-sized steel mills are mostly in a state of low profit.

From the inventory situation, with the lower steel prices, large and medium-sized steel mills' enthusiasm for import mines and scrap purchases has weakened, and stocks have remained stable. On the other hand, due to tight inventory in the early stage, some steel mills continue to raise prices, and stocks are stable. Rise.

From August 30th onwards, China will implement a 3% MFN tax rate on lignite recovery. Analysts said that at present, the proportion of lignite in the coal import structure in China is about 20%, and since 2013, the average price of lignite imports in China has remained at around US$52. It is expected that the increase in this tax rate will be equivalent to about RMB 10/ton per ton of coal and gas. It will impose certain restrictions on the growth of coal imports.

August iron ore shipments in Brazil and Australia increased by 4.94% and 9%, respectively. The Nishimoto Shinkansen believes that since the end of August, mining giants such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Vale have made frequent tenders, most of which will be shipped in mid-September. It can be expected that China's iron ore shipments will increase significantly in October. In addition, Rio Tinto recently successfully shipped its first batch of iron ore from its newly expanded ports, railroads and mines in Western Australia. It can be predicted that the pressure on resources in the iron ore market will increase significantly in October.

The report believes that despite the positive "golden nine silver ten", after nearly one and a half months of recovery, the contradiction between overcapacity and tight funding in the steel market has gradually emerged, the price rise is apparently weak, and the market gradually turns into a shock period. Affected by this, the enthusiasm of steel purchasers will gradually weaken to maintain the existing stocks. Imports of mines, steel billets, scrap steel, and other large-scale varieties will face pressures of slight adjustments. The current prices of coal and coke are still relatively low. On the low side, it will continue to rise steadily in the short term.