Steel City falls in cold weather

First, the current trend of pre-judgment:

raw material:

This week, Tangshan billet market was strong first and then weak. During the period after the rebound, it fell 10 times, then went up 10 points, and rose 20 points over the same period last week. The atmosphere in the market was relatively strong in the near future and the transaction volume weakened. 3,195 contracts were issued on Wednesday Yanyan Steel, which was 15 times higher than the current market. The market was generally light, but with the drop in temperature and the advent of Golden Nine, merchants still have confidence in the market outlook. The recent sluggish growth has led to a drop in the billet price, a slight downturn in the sales of billets, and the weakness of the company's snails has also brought a small blow to the business. However, the raw material costs are high, the spot resources are relatively tight, and there is certain support for the billet price. Therefore, the market outlook is stable, medium and small, and the margin is between 10-30.

This week, the ore market performed relatively quietly. The Platts Index of imported minerals dropped by US$1, which was mainly dragged by the bidding of foreign mines. The spot price kept steady. In terms of steel mills, some steel companies lowered their prices last week, but the goods received after the drop were not good. This week has been partially increased, but the rate is relatively small, generally 5-10 yuan/ton. In terms of mine selection, the attitude is relatively optimistic and basically maintains the normal shipping rhythm. Individuals are reluctant to sell. It is expected that the imported ore will still oscillate around 138 US dollars, and the domestic mines will be mainly stable, and there will be slight upside in some regions.

This week, the coke market continued its upward trend with an increase of RMB 20-50/ton, mainly due to the better downstream demand. The purchase of steel mills was positive and the coking coal prices were higher. The coke prices were not in stock and the coke prices were increased. This week Hebei Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. The price increase is RMB 50/ton, boosting the confidence in the local market. With the National Day holiday and the Mid-Autumn Festival gradually approaching, the demand for steel stocks will be further released. It is expected that Jiaozhou will continue its upward trend next week. At 20-30 yuan/ton.

Scrap market rose slightly this week, mainly due to the fact that some manufacturers' arrivals continued to be average, raising prices to attract sources. Due to the slightly weak start of "Jinjiu" and the slight improvement in the arrival of large steel enterprises, the market's ability to continue to grow is insufficient, and the current market direction is not clear. Customers are still low. The willingness to sell prices is not strong, and it is therefore expected that the recent scrap market will be mainly weak.

This week, the pig iron market is stable and slightly stronger. In recent days, raw materials and finished materials have been narrowly consolidating. The market has a wait-and-see atmosphere. Some steel mills have difficulties in getting goods at low prices. The turnover is poor, and the iron prices are weak. However, under the high cost support, the prices of merchants are reduced. The willingness to ship is not high, and it is expected that the stability of the pig iron market will be dominated next week.

Steel:

This week, Tangshan building materials market first rose after the suppression. At the beginning of the month, the financial pressure eased and the cost supported, the mentality got better, and the price went up steadily. However, the lack of demand for follow-up and sluggish performance led to a return to weaker prices. At present, there has been an increase in some market stocks, but at the beginning of the month, all parties are under pressure and do not want to make major adjustments. It is expected that steel prices will also be adjusted steadily in the up and down dilemma next week, and the weakness may be large.

This week, Tangshan Profile began to oscillate at an early stage, but it was constrained by the high turnover of the transaction followed by a weaker trend. On the one hand, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, billet supply slow billet supply, coupled with billet merchants to increase sales, billet procurement costs are higher, profile steel mills have little profit, active willingness to drop prices is not strong; but on the other hand, this week a few days later Late to see heavy volume, shipping pressures gradually increased, manufacturers’ confidence continued to wear, and low-cost resources increased significantly on Thursday. In view of the weaker-than-expected demand for “Jin 9”, the market’s bullish attitude has been revised in the early stage. Both the fundamentals and the news face pressure on the suppliers, and it is expected that the shock will be weak next week. In view of the high cost, the decline may be limited.

This week, the Tangshan pipe market was stable and strong and oscillated. The mainstream of the seamless pipe was stable, and the welded pipe increased by RMB 20/t. This week, the raw materials have become narrower and stronger. However, the terminal procurement has continued to be sluggish. Although the pipe mills have been willing to pull up, they have actually been weak. However, with the gradual cooling of the weather, the proportion of downstream construction starts will increase, and the demand for pipe will gradually increase. However, taking into account the trend of the market outlook is still unknown, businesses are more cautious in the procurement process, basically small-scale procurement. For the later trend, the market will have to adapt and adjust for a period of time. After the transaction has risen steadily, it will be able to enter a rising space. Pipes are expected to increase slightly in the next week, the rate of 50 yuan / ton.

This week, the steel strip market was slightly stronger, and last quarter and early this week, the leading steel mills accumulated 40-50 yuan. After the rise, the transactions turned weak, and the prices in the second half of the week tended to be flat. In the previous period of “Golden September” good expectations, there was an increase in the number of suppliers for phased restocking, but the number of inspections and repairs of steel mills increased. Ruifeng, Shengfeng, Guofeng, Baotai and other steel mills all have a 5-7-day maintenance plan, and the short-term output Decline, forming support for market prices. It is expected that strip steel will be stable or weak in the next week. II. Current operation suggestions:

Raw materials: This week, the mainstream of raw materials is stable. With the coming of the National Day holiday and the Mid-Autumn Festival, the demand for steel stocks will be further released. It is recommended that businesses need a small amount of replenishment every week. It is recommended to have the goods to seize the opportunity and timely delivery; traders according to a single operation, to purchase.

Steel: This week, steel products still fell slightly, and the phenomenon of market gains was more. The emergence of low-cost resources continued to impact on the mainstream. Therefore, it is recommended that merchants still need to increase their awareness of de-stocking, avoid market risks, optimize their inventory structure, and adopt a “fast-forward and fast-out” low-stock operation mode to respond to various changes in the market.

Third, this week Tangshan Market Overview:

Raw materials: Tangshan raw materials were mixed this week. Due to unsatisfactory transaction of finished materials, although the purchase price of iron ore fines by individual steel companies in Tangshan increased slightly, due to the decline in foreign minerals, there was limited supply on the upper hand, and there were fewer operations for middlemen to enter the market. This week, iron ore remained stable. This week saw a slight increase in coke and furnace burden, and the positive factors such as the manufacturing prosperity index continued to rise, pushing up the market slightly. The enthusiasm for downstream steel purchases was still good, while the coking coal in the upper reaches continued to strengthen, both forming strong support for the city. Due to the general arrival of some manufacturers in the earlier period, this week's burden rose slightly due to tight supply. This week, the steel billet weakened. Affected by the unsatisfactory turnover of downstream profiles, strip steel and rebar, the merchants did not take the goods and the transaction volume was light.

Steel: Tangshan finished products weakened this week. This week the 145 strip fell slightly. Affected by the weak steel bills and the lack of transactions to provide support for the increase, the strip began to operate weakly on Tuesday. In the absence of a clear demand release, the strip fell by 30 compared with the beginning of the week. Although there are few stocks for shelf pipe manufacturers, it is difficult for manufacturers to accept orders to improve significantly. Following the adjustment of prices of raw materials and steel strips, the company will take profits and ensure that sales are normal. The enthusiasm for purchasing downstream building materials this week is still not high, but some low-cost resources have improved slightly. Under the influence of weak steel bills, prices returned to a weaker trend. The demand for “Jin 9” was weaker than expected, and the transaction of the profile did not see heavy volume delays. Under the pressure of cost weakness, the pressure did not decrease, and the profile went down slightly.

IV. Industry news this week (1) China's stainless steel crude steel output in 2020 or over 25 million tons Stainless Steel Branch Honorary Chairman and Consultant Li Cheng of the China Special Steel Enterprises Association is expected to reach 2020 at the 8th International Stainless Steel Congress. China's stainless steel production will likely exceed 25 million tons, and apparent consumption will likely exceed 20 million tons. Li Cheng also stated that China has formulated the long-term economic goals of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, promoting reform, and benefiting people’s livelihood, and realizing the “new four modernizations” (industrialization, informatization, urbanization, agricultural modernization), and Decided to launch stable growth in railway investment, urban infrastructure construction, energy conservation and environmental protection, and information consumption, which will become a powerful driving force for the development of China's stainless steel industry.

(2) Partial coal price rises in the second half of the year. The downward pressure on some coal prices has not decreased. The price of some coal varieties has risen in different ranges. It has brought a hope of price rebound to the coal market that has fallen for a long time. However, there is still a large downward trend in coal prices in the future. pressure. It is expected that the demand for coal will continue to increase slightly in the third quarter and the second half of this year. The production capacity will continue to be released. Along with the increase in imports, the market will continue to show a trend of loose supply and demand and a structural surplus. The overall social inventory remained high, and the downward pressure on coal prices remained. The task of de-capacity and destocking in the industry is arduous, and business operations will also face greater difficulties.

(3) Unresolved crises in 20 years The Shougang Peruvian company has also suffered labor disputes. According to Reuters on September 3, the iron ore workers of SHP.LM, the Shougang Hierro Peru Co., Ltd. of China’s Shougang Group, began indefinitely in mid-August. Raise wages and improve working conditions. Due to the breakdown of negotiations between the company and union workers, the Shougang Hierro Peru Co. has continued. The numerous incidents that have occurred in more than 20 years have caused Shougang Group to fall into labor disputes. The stumbling blocks for the operation of overseas mining enterprises have not yet been reopened. A middle-level official of Shougang privately said: “This incident is not news, and it will be repeated several times a year, and it has not been completely resolved.” All the ** are based on the request for salary increase, continuous The demonstration has brought a considerable economic loss to Shougang Hierro Peru.

(4) The increase in iron ore shipments in the Port O'Shealand Port was attributed to the increase in demand from China, and the increase in iron ore shipments in Port Hedland, Australia in August. According to official statistics from Port Hedland, shipments of iron ore were 27.4 million tons in August 2013 and 26.6 million tons in July. The data also shows that its largest buyer, China's August export of iron ore was 22.3 million tons, which was 20.4 million tons in July. Bloomberg also said that China's manufacturing sector resumed its growth momentum in August, suggesting that the Chinese economy has stabilized after a two-month slowdown. The report also believes that China will achieve the goal of 7.5% GDP growth in 2013 and is expected to maintain this growth rate in 2014. Morgan Stanley said that the increase in iron ore prices implies a steady recovery of the Chinese economy.