The domestic polysilicon spot price started to rebound after reaching a low of 370 yuan/kg in June. According to the latest statistical data of the China Nonferrous Metals Association Silicon Industry Branch, as of July 27, the domestic mainstream price of polysilicon spot is 400-470 yuan / kg (including a product), the mainstream quoted international polysilicon spot is 50-60 US dollars / kg.
According to industry analysts, under the stimulus of the introduction of China's photovoltaic unified online power benchmark price policy, downstream battery modules and power plant operation markets will start to accelerate, which will drive the demand for upstream polysilicon, and polysilicon prices are expected to rise further. However, due to the influence of the supply and demand relationship in the international market, the space for polysilicon price increases will remain limited in the coming period.
Domestic demand expansion According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, China’s solar power generation capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts by 2015. Therefore, it is expected that the start-up of domestic PV market scale will be clear. Insiders pointed out that the start of domestic demand for photovoltaics, the premise is that the government introduced a clear fixed on-grid pricing mechanism. Therefore, the launch of the unified benchmark price of PV network access is equivalent to breaking the bottleneck of the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Xu Zheng, chief scientist of Zhejiang China Silicon New Energy Corporation, told the China Securities Journal that with the breaking of the industrial bottleneck, manufacturers such as downstream battery components and system integration will gradually emerge from the current "winter period." In this context, the upstream polysilicon market is expected to continue to rise.
The market predicts that the demand for polysilicon of 10 million kilowatts will reach 80,000-10 million tons according to megawatts of photovoltaic cells, which will require 8-10 tons of polysilicon. According to the current polysilicon price, the domestic polysilicon market in the next five years is expected to reach 320 Billion-47 billion yuan.
Changes in the international market Although the unified feed-in tariff policy has benefited the polysilicon industry, there are still comments that, from a global perspective, the current European PV market is gradually declining due to the decline in the subsidy policy of various countries, while the domestic market is becoming large-scale. It is still difficult to eliminate the adverse effects of the gradual shrinkage of the European market.
Xu Zheng pointed out that in 2010, the annual installed capacity of new photovoltaic installations was 15.8 GW, of which 12.3 GW was newly installed by the EU throughout the year. Germany installed 6.7 GW in 2010, accounting for 42.5% of the global market share, and Europe remains the world's largest photovoltaic market. The installed capacity of the United States and China after 5 years is expected to reach more than 10GW, which is less than the global new market share last year.
Since last year, major PV power installations such as Italy and Germany have announced that they will substantially reduce their subsidies in the future until they cancel the subsidies for PV companies, which will cool the previously fast-growing PV market. Wu Dacheng, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that by October this year, the European market will remain at the top of the global photovoltaic market. However, its market demand will bid farewell to its rapid expansion and show steady growth. Affected by this, domestic polysilicon demand and prices are still expected to continue to rebound, but the rate will not be great.
According to industry analysts, under the stimulus of the introduction of China's photovoltaic unified online power benchmark price policy, downstream battery modules and power plant operation markets will start to accelerate, which will drive the demand for upstream polysilicon, and polysilicon prices are expected to rise further. However, due to the influence of the supply and demand relationship in the international market, the space for polysilicon price increases will remain limited in the coming period.
Domestic demand expansion According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, China’s solar power generation capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts by 2015. Therefore, it is expected that the start-up of domestic PV market scale will be clear. Insiders pointed out that the start of domestic demand for photovoltaics, the premise is that the government introduced a clear fixed on-grid pricing mechanism. Therefore, the launch of the unified benchmark price of PV network access is equivalent to breaking the bottleneck of the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Xu Zheng, chief scientist of Zhejiang China Silicon New Energy Corporation, told the China Securities Journal that with the breaking of the industrial bottleneck, manufacturers such as downstream battery components and system integration will gradually emerge from the current "winter period." In this context, the upstream polysilicon market is expected to continue to rise.
The market predicts that the demand for polysilicon of 10 million kilowatts will reach 80,000-10 million tons according to megawatts of photovoltaic cells, which will require 8-10 tons of polysilicon. According to the current polysilicon price, the domestic polysilicon market in the next five years is expected to reach 320 Billion-47 billion yuan.
Changes in the international market Although the unified feed-in tariff policy has benefited the polysilicon industry, there are still comments that, from a global perspective, the current European PV market is gradually declining due to the decline in the subsidy policy of various countries, while the domestic market is becoming large-scale. It is still difficult to eliminate the adverse effects of the gradual shrinkage of the European market.
Xu Zheng pointed out that in 2010, the annual installed capacity of new photovoltaic installations was 15.8 GW, of which 12.3 GW was newly installed by the EU throughout the year. Germany installed 6.7 GW in 2010, accounting for 42.5% of the global market share, and Europe remains the world's largest photovoltaic market. The installed capacity of the United States and China after 5 years is expected to reach more than 10GW, which is less than the global new market share last year.
Since last year, major PV power installations such as Italy and Germany have announced that they will substantially reduce their subsidies in the future until they cancel the subsidies for PV companies, which will cool the previously fast-growing PV market. Wu Dacheng, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that by October this year, the European market will remain at the top of the global photovoltaic market. However, its market demand will bid farewell to its rapid expansion and show steady growth. Affected by this, domestic polysilicon demand and prices are still expected to continue to rebound, but the rate will not be great.
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