In May, domestic steel prices gradually evolved from an initial negative decline to an accelerated downward trend. The contradiction between supply and demand, downward cost and weak capital market constraints made the country's rebar prices hit new lows. Below we will specifically analyze the current situation of the steel market: First, the supply is greater than demand. The output of crude steel has reached a record high this year. In mid-May, the output of crude steel in key large and medium-sized steel enterprises nationwide was 16.921 million tons, and the average daily output was 1.692 million tons, down 0.4% from the previous month. Although the output decreased slightly, it is still at a historical high; The overall demand of the market is lacking, the site procurement is postponed, and the intermediate demand is also on the sidelines. Therefore, oversupply has become a major obstacle to the upward trend of steel prices. Second, the cost center of gravity continues to move down. As far as billet is concerned, Changli billet has dropped from the high point of 3810 yuan/ton in April to the current 3510 yuan/ton, a drop of 300 yuan/ton, which is more than 100 points lower than the low point in February this year, and ore, coke, Scrap and other varieties have also fallen, resulting in steel mill raw material procurement costs continue to decline, accelerating the reduction of finished product prices. Once again, the capital market is worse. In the first four months, China's fixed asset investment fell to a new low since 2003, approaching the 20% mark. Steel futures entered the downtrend channel. The main thread 1210 contract continued to fall for more than a month from the high of 4405 in April, with a drop of more than 7%. The period is now falling and the price is upside down, causing businesses to panic and dumping goods, accelerating the fall in steel prices. All in all, in May, under the influence of multiple negative factors, the domestic steel market was in a state of collapse, and steel prices continued to fall, once falling below the lowest point of the year. Then, in June, will the steel market attract good news and break through the siege? Fubao analyst Duan Yongxiao believes that when the downturn is weak, the steel market is expected to bottom out in June unless there is a major positive stimulus, otherwise it will continue to decline. The main reasons are as follows: The domestic and international economic environment is not good . The international situation continues to be turbulent. The debt crisis in Europe and the United States has intensified. The global economy is in a sluggish economy. The economic recovery of the economic powers such as the United Kingdom and the United States is slow, and the unemployment rate is swinging around 10%. Domestic: On May 19, Premier Wen put forward "putting steady growth in a more important position." From the previous day, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points and released more than 400 billion yuan of liquidity. At the same time, railway investment of 2 trillion yuan of credit has gradually been put in place, and the speed of approval of major projects has shown to some extent the intention of the decision-making level to stimulate the economy and boost demand through policy favors. However, the fine-tuning of the policy stems from a new judgment on the economic trend. It reflects that the current economic growth situation in China is not optimistic. Raw materials market clunker According to the survey, billet producers into a basic comprehensive loss, therefore, the decline in the late billets or easing, but there are still large steel prices down and making it up space, while ore, scrap atmosphere is still vulnerable to run It will last for a long time, but considering the difficulty of the low position to continue to fall, it is expected that the decline will gradually increase; the overall raw material market is weak, and the finished product market may still have a cost-driven decline. The contradiction between supply and demand will temporarily ease the long-term decline in steel prices, which will cause steel mills to fall into a comprehensive loss situation. However, large and medium-sized steel mills still need to digest high-priced imported ore stocks for about one month. Therefore, there is no plan to reduce production, and even intentionally This suppresses the price of the mine. Therefore, short-term production will remain at a high level. However, as the temperature gradually rises, the downstream demand will further shrink, the construction site generally delays the procurement, and the intermediate circulation market is also difficult to be active. Therefore, the pattern of oversupply in the steel market will continue.
The market mentality is generally empty. The peak season is still not prosperous. In the off-season, what is better, and the difficulty of financing for SMEs is gradually increasing. Most merchants are more pessimistic about the outlook. At the same time, the industry's profits have shrunk severely. Some steel mills have begun to develop new products and expand new profit channels. Steel traders have also begun to set foot in other industries such as pig raising and planting. In summary, the fall in steel prices in June is basically a foregone conclusion. Considering that steel mills may increase the scale of inspection and production reduction, steel prices are expected to bottom out after the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and conservative estimates are optimistic about July-August.
The market mentality is generally empty. The peak season is still not prosperous. In the off-season, what is better, and the difficulty of financing for SMEs is gradually increasing. Most merchants are more pessimistic about the outlook. At the same time, the industry's profits have shrunk severely. Some steel mills have begun to develop new products and expand new profit channels. Steel traders have also begun to set foot in other industries such as pig raising and planting. In summary, the fall in steel prices in June is basically a foregone conclusion. Considering that steel mills may increase the scale of inspection and production reduction, steel prices are expected to bottom out after the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and conservative estimates are optimistic about July-August.
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