According to a new study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, although the current market conditions are not good, the increase in cost competitiveness will promote the proportion of newly installed power generation capacity of renewable energy in the period from 2013 to 2030 to reach 69%-74%. Among them, the most likely The scenario is that the annual investment in non-hydro renewable energy projects will increase by 2.3% compared to 2012 due to the further decline of fossil fuels relative to the cost of wind power and solar power, and the development of uninterrupted power generation such as geothermal and biomass. Times, reaching the level of $630 billion.
2030 renewable energy into the main force
Bloomberg New Energy Finance's 2030 forecast of world energy markets summarizes the most critical determinants of energy development, including economic development, global and regional demand growth, technology cost upgrades, policy development prospects for responding to climate change, and fossil fuel market trends. Based on these factors, analysis was conducted in three different scenarios: "baseline scenario," "rapid development," and "conformity."
Among them, the "baseline scenario" is the scenario considered to be the most promising. It shows that the investment in non-hydro renewable energy projects in 2030 will reach US$630 billion, which is 3.3 times the amount of investment in 2012. The 2030 investment forecast analysis is 35% higher than the result of Bloomberg New Energy Finance last year. At that time, the total installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy is also expected to increase by 25% to 3.5 billion kilowatts.
Under the “baseline scenarioâ€, it is predicted that 70% of the newly added power generation capacity in the power sector from 2013 to 2030 will come from renewable energy including large hydropower. Only 25% will still be coal, natural gas or oil, and the rest will be nuclear energy. Solar and wind power will become the largest sources of new installed capacity during 2013 to 2030, accounting for 30% and 27%, respectively.
Demand continues to grow
Although the two other scenarios of Bloomberg New Energy Finance are slightly different, they both predict the continued growth of demand for renewable energy in the future. In the "rapid development" scenario, the investment in non-hydro renewable energy projects will reach 880 billion U.S. dollars in 2030, and cumulatively 9.3 trillion U.S. dollars in 2013-30. At the same time, another additional $2 trillion will be needed to invest in the construction of long-distance transmission systems, smart grids, energy storage and demand response infrastructure. In the more pessimistic “conventional†scenario, the investment in non-hydro renewable energy projects is expected to reach US$470 billion by 2030 and by US$6.1 trillion by 2013-30.
According to Guy Turner, director of the economics and commodities department of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, although the amount of clean energy investment has declined since 2011, renewable energy technologies will continue to be a key part of the new installed capacity in the future, even in the world economy and policy development. This is also true in less optimistic situations.
Michael Liebreich, president of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said that there is a problem of overcapacity on the supply side of clean energy, and the cheap temptation of shale gas. It is full of news reports, ignoring the cost of renewable energy and the cost of various energy system access technologies. Falling facts. Ultimately, the cost reduction will win the market.
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