What is the industrial situation in China in 2018?
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 28, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 6,635.14 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year. According to this, the industrial situation in China is developing well.
However, compared with the figure of 751.71 billion yuan in profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2017, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2018 is -12%.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the reason why the actual industrial profits above the scale seems to decrease and the number of the final announcements has increased significantly is the adjustment of the statistical scope.
For similar problems, the National Bureau of Statistics explained in the form of questions and answers in July 2018. The main reasons for the differences were “changes in the number of business statistics, strengthening of statistical enforcement, elimination of double counting and divestiture of non-industrial production and operation activitiesâ€. .
It is reported that the statistical standard for industrial enterprises above designated size is an industrial legal entity with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan and above. According to the public figures of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of enterprises above designated size in the country in November 2018 was 378,440, a decrease of 5,753 from the same period of the previous year. In this regard, Liu Qihong, a researcher at the South China Institute of Economics at Hohai University, believes that a large number of industrial enterprises have died out. There are multiple factors, and some enterprises are shut down due to rising environmental protection costs. Some are caused by rising labor and land costs, and some are caused by state regulation. .
Industrial enterprises' profits increased by 10.3%
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 378,440 in November 2018, a decrease of 5,753 over the same period of the previous year.
According to the calculation of industrial profits above designated size in 2017 and 2018 published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of industrial profits above designated size in 2018 is -12%, but the National Bureau of Statistics announced 10.3%.
The reason is that a large number of enterprises are no longer within the statistical scope of industrial enterprises above designated size.
Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out earlier that the statistical system method requires that the comparison objects need the same caliber and the same scope, and the comparison with the same batch of enterprises can truly reflect the economic situation. Therefore, to calculate the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, it is necessary to use the total profit of industrial enterprises on this year's regulations in addition to the total profits of the same batch of enterprises in the same period. The statistical system stipulates that the statistical scope of industrial enterprises above designated size is an industrial legal entity with a main business income of 20 million yuan or more. The number of enterprises is always changing due to changes in the business conditions of the company. There are new, de-registered, and merged, and the scale has increased to the threshold of 20 million yuan, and the scale has become smaller and the threshold of 20 million yuan has been withdrawn. Therefore, the number of companies in industrial statistics is changing.
The National Bureau of Statistics explained that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in the whole year of 2018 is 10.3%. According to the comparable calculation, there is an incomparable factor between the data in the reporting period and the same indicator data published in the previous year. Than calculating the growth rate.
There are several reasons for this. For example, according to the statistical system, the scope of investigation of industrial enterprises above designated size is adjusted regularly every year. Every year, some enterprises have reached the scale of the survey, and some enterprises have withdrawn from the survey due to the smaller scale. There are also changes in new production enterprises, bankruptcies, and injections.
Another factor is that the statistical department has strengthened statistical enforcement, and has cleaned up the enterprises found in the statistical law enforcement inspection that do not meet the industrial statistics requirements above the scale, and revised the relevant bases.
Dr. He Ping from the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics believes that in 20 major industrial sectors in 2018, the profits of 32 industries increased compared with the previous year. The industries with the most profit added are mainly five industries. “The contribution rate of the five industries to the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size is 77.1%.†He Ping analyzed.
Among them, the oil and natural gas mining industry increased profits by 4.4 times compared with the previous year; the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 43%; the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 37.8%; the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 15.9%; The wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry grew by 20.8%.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the number of enterprises above designated size in these industries has changed dramatically. For example, in November 2018, compared with the same period of the previous year, the number of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (steel) enterprises decreased by 3,348 compared with the previous year, and non-metallic mineral products enterprises decreased by 607, chemical raw materials and chemicals. The number of companies has decreased by 1,334, the number of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing has decreased by 321 and the oil and gas extraction industry has decreased by 17.
Dynamic adjustment of the enterprise sample database
Compared with the same period in November 2010, by November 2018, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in China has decreased, with the largest reduction being 14,069 in the textile industry. In addition, the textile and apparel industry and apparel industry decreased by 4,588, the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 4,783, the steel industry decreased by 2,814, and the paper and paper industry decreased by 3,545. The number of enterprises above designated size decreased in these five industries. Add up to about 30,000, accounting for about half of the reduction in the number of enterprises above all sizes.
However, these reduced figures do not necessarily indicate that 70,000 companies have died.
The National Bureau of Statistics also pointed out that after the implementation of the “Calculation Reform†policy, service enterprises changed their VAT and the tax rate was lower. Industrial enterprises gradually divested their internal non-industrial production and operation activities and turned to the service industry, so that the financial data of industrial enterprises Reduced.
According to the latest survey of enterprise organizational structure conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the fourth quarter of 2017, the cross-regional and cross-industry double counting of enterprise groups (companies) was heavily weighted. However, it can still be explained that the number of enterprises and the trend of changes in the industry reflect the different development prospects of different industries.
Liu Qihong, a researcher at Sunan Economic Institute of Hohai University, pointed out that because the working-age population and the labor-employment population are decreasing, the cost of the textile and garment industry is rising rapidly. It is certain that a large number of enterprises have been eliminated. In fact, there is still a problem, such as textile clothing. The industry used to open factories in the 1980s and 1990s, but the cost of opening factories was low. These people who have opened factories are old, and their descendants are not willing to take over because the industry is bitter and tired.
"The state also strengthens environmental protection requirements. When the regulation is carried out and the market cost is raised, a large number of enterprises will die, not only textiles and clothing, but also agricultural and sideline products processing industries, because in the past many polluting enterprises," he said.
From the regional perspective, in 2018, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size was reduced by Beijing and Shanghai. Among them, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in Beijing and Shanghai in November 2018 was 3,197 and 8,130 respectively, 3,306 over the same period of the previous year. 8,351 decreased by 109 and 221.
Time has drawn a little longer. Compared with the 2010 data, the number of enterprises above designated size in Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong and Zhejiang has fallen sharply.
Among them, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in Beijing and Shanghai in November 2018 was reduced by more than half compared with 6,884 and 16,684 in 2010.
In November 2018, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong was 45,675, 38,333, 40,583, and 47,456 respectively, compared with 64,136, 44,037, 64,364, and 53,389 figures in 2010. Reduced by about 5,000-20,000.
However, it is worth noting that, unlike the reduction in the number of enterprises in the steel industry and the rapid increase in corporate profits, when the number of enterprises above designated size in the textile and other industries decreases, the profit growth rate and profit rate are not high. Among them, the growth rate of the textile industry in 2018 is only 5.3. %, much lower than the steel industry's profit growth rate of 37.8%.
Xu Changle, a special professor at the Jiangsu Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute of Nantong University, pointed out that many industries are difficult to maintain and are related to high costs. In cities such as Shanghai, where land costs are high, the future is mainly to develop high-end service industries, especially technology services. The general manufacturing industry is difficult to develop and needs to be transferred to the periphery to cooperate with the surrounding areas.
It should be noted that at present, all areas of the Yangtze River Delta region are strengthening technological innovation, such as the Hefei Science Center in Anhui and Shanghai as a technology center. "All regions in the Yangtze River Delta region can cooperate to achieve complementary advantages and common development." Xu Changle said.
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