Industrial structure malformation: two heads out Although despite the rapid development of China's solar photovoltaic industry in the past few years, it still has not changed the "two heads outside" deformed industrial institutions. In 2008, China's PV system installation volume was 40MW, accounting for only 0.73% of the total installed capacity in the world. In 2007, China's PV system installation volume was 20MW, accounting for 0.8% of the total installed capacity in the world. In 2008, the photovoltaic power system installed in Germany was 1,500 MW, accounting for 27.27% of the total installed capacity in the world. The installed capacity of Spain, another photovoltaic country in Europe, reached 2511 MW, accounting for 45.65% of the total installed capacity in the world. Corresponding to the installation of photovoltaic systems in China, the output of China's photovoltaic products has been firmly in the top spot in the world in recent years. According to the latest investment report and forecast report of China's solar cell industry in 2009-2012 issued by China Investment Advisors, China's photovoltaic cell production reached 1.78GW in 2008, accounting for 26% of the global total. In terms of market share, the market share of Chinese solar cell manufacturers (including Taiwan Province) has increased year by year. In 2007, the market share of Chinese solar cell manufacturers increased from 20% in 2006 to 35%, and in 2008, it went further. It has increased significantly to 44% and has become the world's number one for two consecutive years. The terminal market is outside and mainly in Europe, which has caused China's PV manufacturers to suffer a great deal in the financial crisis. Corresponding to the end market, the upstream core technology of the polysilicon industry is mainly in the hands of seven foreign manufacturers, including Hemlock in the United States, REC in Norway, MEMC in the United States, Wacker in Germany, Tokuyama in Japan, Mitsubishi Material and Sumitomo Titanium. They monopolized the global supply of polysilicon and gained the most lucrative profits in the solar industry. Profiteering is no longer difficult to stop the polysilicon investment frenzy Since 2006, the cumulative investment in China's polysilicon projects has reached 44 billion yuan, and this trend is still growing. The two major photovoltaic leading enterprises in China, Tianwei Baobian and Jiangxi Saiwei, have accumulated 8,000 tons of polysilicon projects under construction. Since the second half of 2006, the concept of polysilicon has gradually warmed up in China, and many listed companies have been involved. Among the A-share companies investing in polysilicon include CSG A, Chuantou Energy, Tianwei Baobian, TBEA, Jiangsu Sunshine, Leshan Power, Lancang Hydropower, Tongwei, Aerospace, Guidong Power, Yinxing Energy, etc. Yu Jia. Although the economic crisis occurred in 2008, many companies still expanded their production against the market. At the end of November 2008, Jiangsu Shunda Phase I 1,500-ton polysilicon project was officially put into operation; at the end of December, Jiangsu Sunshine Phase I 1500-ton project and CSG A1500-ton production line were put into production respectively; in January 2009, Asian Silicon Industry 1500-ton production line was put into operation; 2009 In April of this year, Jiangsu Zhongneng's 13500 tons capacity will be put into production. In addition, the total number of polysilicon projects under construction in China is over 20, with a total investment of more than 70 billion. Among them, the largest projects under construction are Nanjing Continental Investment Group, US PPP, SCC, CH2M HILL and other companies jointly invested in the construction of the Tuoketuo County polysilicon project with a total investment of 18 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 18,000 tons of polysilicon. Yunnan Aibuxin Technology Co., Ltd. plans a total of 10,000 tons / year polysilicon project, with a total investment of more than 10 billion yuan. The newly started project was invested and built by Shandong Yulang Energy Technology Co., Ltd. on April 18, 2009. The initial investment was 1.1 billion and the total investment was 9 billion. In the polysilicon investment boom that domestic enterprises continue to set off, the weighted average price of international polysilicon forward contracts in 2009 fell by 30% to US$107/kg compared with 2008, and the spot price fell to US$60-70/kg in May 2009. . Domestic polysilicon costs are generally between $50 and $70 per kilogram, and some companies that do not have closed-loop production cost as much as $100 per kilogram. This means that the profits of domestic polysilicon enterprises have been quite meager, and even the situation of loss-making operations. The origin of raw materials has no say on the price of polysilicon. For a long time, the “weakness†of the polysilicon industry has always plagued China's photovoltaic industry. The biggest reason is that it cannot break through the technical barriers of international big factories and lead to high costs. However, the domestic polysilicon industry is not without advantages. This advantage lies in the fact that 80% of the main raw material of polysilicon upstream raw material metallurgical silicon comes from China. China Investment Consultant's latest 2009-2012 China Metal Silicon Market Investment Analysis and Forecast Report shows that China is the world's major producer of metal silicon. In 2007, China's total production of metal silicon was 95-100 million tons. China's total production of metal silicon is 75-800,000 tons. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's industrial silicon production and exports have maintained a relatively fast growth rate. In 2001, China exported 324,400 tons of industrial silicon, 3.874 million tons in 2002, and reached 479,900 tons in 2003. In 2004, it exceeded 500,000 tons, reaching 554,100 tons. In 2005 and 2004, it was basically equal to 536,100 tons. However, it reached 614,000 tons in 2006, an increase of 14.6% over 2005. In the first half of 2007, it increased by 16.3% compared with the same period of 2006. In 2007, the industrial silicon exports reached 698,000 tons, an increase of 13.8% over 2006. In the first three months of 2008, China's metal silicon production was around 200,000-250,000 tons, and domestic consumption was around 35,000-85,000 tons. The rest were exported. China's polysilicon industry also has huge resource advantages, but it has not only turned its advantages into winning powers, but has been completely subject to international big factories. The fundamental reason is that there is no scale-up advantage similar to the “Big Three†in the iron ore field, but some SMEs are fighting each other and there is vicious competition. So far, the policy pull effect is limited. So far, domestic and even global PV industry is still an obvious “policy market†stage. From the development experience of foreign PV industry, after the government introduced relevant financial subsidies or electricity price online policies, the industry basically appeared. There has been explosive growth, such as Germany and Spain. In 2004, the German government launched the on-grid tariff method, the famous EEG bill, which led to a surge in PV installations in Germany. The initial on-grid price was 3 times the retail price or 8 times the industrial price. The PV system has a fixed price for 20 years after installation, but it is delayed by one year, and the fixed price is lowered by a certain ratio. The current solar subsidy in Germany was finalized in 2008 by the country’s House of Commons. The current annual solar energy purchase tax rate (Feed-inTariffs) has dropped by 5% from 2008 to 8% in 2009 and 2010, and 9% in 2011. The ground-mounted system (Ground-mounted system) has dropped 6.5 from 2008. %, changed to 10% in 2009~2010. The new regulations have been in force on January 1, 2009. In 2004, Spain began implementing the Royal Solar Project. Revised in 2006, the plan proposes a power purchase compensation method for photovoltaic systems with a power generation of less than 100 kWp (kilowatt energy) at a price of 0.44 EUD/kWh (5.75 times the average electricity price), valid for 25 years. After 25 years, the price of electricity purchased became 4.6 times the average electricity price. For photovoltaic power generation systems greater than 100 kWp, the price of 0.23 EU/kWh (three times the average electricity price) is used. The above policies have played a crucial role in the development of the photovoltaic industry in Germany and Spain. The policy of the photovoltaic industry in China before 2007 is basically a blank. The introduction of the 2007 Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy is also quite limited. After entering 2009, the Chinese government has successively issued policies such as “Solar Roof Plan†and “Golden Sun Projectâ€, but Jiang Qian, chief researcher of CIC Consulting Energy Industry, believes that Jiang Qian pointed out that the photovoltaic industry should develop normally, the most important thing is still Solve the problem of on-grid tariffs. In other words, the power grid companies that are sent out have the enthusiasm to buy, and the end users are willing to use them is the most critical factor. The financial subsidies of Germany, Spain and other countries are starting from here, which has led to explosive growth in the photovoltaic industry. The "Golden Sun Project" jointly issued by the three departments of China, the focus of subsidies is concentrated on the installation side, and does not solve the substantive problem of on-grid tariffs. From this perspective alone, the "Golden Sun Project" is not optimistic about the era of the photovoltaic industry.
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