Driven by the continued surge in the prices of strong varieties of copper, nickel and zinc, from the beginning of March to the beginning of May, the price of aluminum has also entered an accelerated compensatory phase. In early May, the price quickly broke the $3,000/ton mark and set a new bull market high of $3,300/ton. However, compared with basic metals such as copper, nickel, and zinc, the performance of aluminum is still inferior, which is of course related to the fundamentals of aluminum. The pace of domestic aluminum price increases lags behind London – high stock exchanges, positive selling by producers, and relatively slow growth in consumption, which have limited domestic aluminum prices. The lower ratio of domestic spot prices to LME aluminum prices has reached a level of 7.2. Although domestic aluminum prices have significantly adjusted in the second half of May, domestic aluminum prices have shown a corresponding stagflation compared to the adjustment rate of LME aluminum. Overall, domestic aluminum prices will continue their tepid, relatively passive trend.
Aluminium Market Supply and Stocks Analysis What is the fundamentals of the aluminum market? Is its strength more from the promotion of funds? Here we combine CRU, BROOKHUNT, IAI statistics to do some more detailed analysis. Judging from the global situation, there is a big gap between the supply and demand balance between East and West. In the previous quarter, the global primary aluminum gap was around 126,000 tons, while the gap in Western countries during the same period reached about 272,000 tons, which is obviously related to the larger stocks in Asia. Since 2000, China’s primary aluminum production has grown rapidly, and production in the first quarter of 2006 reached a new high. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s CNIA’s data from the previous quarter showed that China’s primary aluminum production increased by 18% compared to the same period last year, reaching a record of 2.504 million tons. While the output of primary aluminum in Western countries is relatively slow, North America and Western Europe have seen signs of a decrease in production of primary aluminum in the previous quarter. Therefore, considering the global situation, we believe that there is a slight gap in the primary aluminum market and we believe that the fundamentals of the aluminum market will gradually improve in the face of increasing demand in the future.
The main reason for the current aluminum price rises to be significantly slower than other base metals is the aluminum inventory. However, with the participation of funds, there has been some differentiation in the current fluctuations in aluminum prices and inventories. LME stocks slightly decreased in April, aluminum prices rose little; after the end of April LME's stocks increased rapidly, LME's stocks increased mainly in Asian warehouses, May 10 LME aluminum stocks increased again 10,250 tons, but the corresponding aluminum prices have risen rapidly, aluminum inventory can not provide a reasonable explanation of the current level of aluminum prices. Judging from the CRU's forecast for inventory-to-consumer ratios, the LME’s inventory-to-consumption ratio for April was 6.1 weeks (this is unmodified data), while other agencies’ forecasts were mostly above 4.7 weeks. Compared with copper, zinc, and nickel, aluminum's inventory-to-consumption ratio is very high. Currently, the copper market's inventory consumption is only about 1.8 weeks. The calculations show that the apparent consumption growth of China's aluminum is relatively strong, with an annual growth rate of 14% in the first four months of this year, but the increase in consumption is not enough to digest the increase in domestic aluminum production. In this case, the performance of aluminum prices is naturally inferior, especially domestic performance is even worse. Gradually surplus alumina supply From the perspective of global alumina market, after a large number of gaps in 2005, it is expected to gradually surplus this year. BROOK HUNT is relatively new. In 2006, there was a slight surplus of alumina in the previous quarter, and the supply in each quarter from 2006 to 2007 will gradually increase. From various foreign research reports, although the forecast data is different, the judgment of the alumina market is basically similar to the prediction of BROOK HUNT. In short, we will see in the coming period of time: the pressure of oversupply of alumina will increase. The bigger it is.
The domestic alumina production has also grown relatively rapidly, and stocks have also shown a continuous upward trend. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s alumina production in March was 996,000 tons, an increase of 45.9% year-on-year, and the previous quarter’s cumulative production was 2.768 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. With the production of new and expanded production capacity in various regions, the monthly output of alumina in China will continue to increase. It is estimated that China's alumina production this year will reach more than 13 million tons. The relatively large alumina projects currently under construction and proposed include: May 2006, Fuping Xinfa added 1 million tons of alumina production capacity; in the second half of the year, Nanshan Group may start production of 400,000 tons, and Luneng’s Jinbei may form 400,000 to 600,000. Ton production, of which the alumina increase is relatively large in Shandong area. Although alumina production has increased significantly, the balance of domestic alumina market is still very fragile. Although the inventory is increasing, the overall inventory is still at a very low level. Under the background of low inventory, the interruption of alumina production, the reduction in the amount of imported alumina, and the acceleration of the growth rate of primary aluminum production will also pose a great threat to the alumina supply situation. Therefore, in the short term, the supply and demand situation of domestic alumina remains Not too optimistic.
Current market structure and outlook In the basic metals of LME, the trading volume of aluminum is relatively active, and the open interest is also very large. At present, LME's aluminum holdings are close to 540,000 hands. Under such a large position, the aluminum market has a very high risk of cohesion. With the rapid rise in prices in the previous period, the price gap between the near and far futures is widening. The forward price movement on May 19 was steeper than that on April 19, indicating that the recent signs of contract aluminum prices being driven by funds are more apparent. Investors should be cautious: the current aluminum price does not reflect the true fundamentals, which masks a lot of potential negative factors, these factors may eventually threaten the aluminum price rise. The fund lacks confidence in the aluminum market. Therefore, the short-term trend of aluminum prices will be mainly affected by the trend of other basic metals (especially copper), and it will be possible to follow the pattern of copper prices entering a wide range of oscillations. The LME price range is about 2600 to 3,000 USD/ton. Shanghai's price range is about 20,000 to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum market is still relatively passive.
Aluminium Market Supply and Stocks Analysis What is the fundamentals of the aluminum market? Is its strength more from the promotion of funds? Here we combine CRU, BROOKHUNT, IAI statistics to do some more detailed analysis. Judging from the global situation, there is a big gap between the supply and demand balance between East and West. In the previous quarter, the global primary aluminum gap was around 126,000 tons, while the gap in Western countries during the same period reached about 272,000 tons, which is obviously related to the larger stocks in Asia. Since 2000, China’s primary aluminum production has grown rapidly, and production in the first quarter of 2006 reached a new high. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s CNIA’s data from the previous quarter showed that China’s primary aluminum production increased by 18% compared to the same period last year, reaching a record of 2.504 million tons. While the output of primary aluminum in Western countries is relatively slow, North America and Western Europe have seen signs of a decrease in production of primary aluminum in the previous quarter. Therefore, considering the global situation, we believe that there is a slight gap in the primary aluminum market and we believe that the fundamentals of the aluminum market will gradually improve in the face of increasing demand in the future.
The main reason for the current aluminum price rises to be significantly slower than other base metals is the aluminum inventory. However, with the participation of funds, there has been some differentiation in the current fluctuations in aluminum prices and inventories. LME stocks slightly decreased in April, aluminum prices rose little; after the end of April LME's stocks increased rapidly, LME's stocks increased mainly in Asian warehouses, May 10 LME aluminum stocks increased again 10,250 tons, but the corresponding aluminum prices have risen rapidly, aluminum inventory can not provide a reasonable explanation of the current level of aluminum prices. Judging from the CRU's forecast for inventory-to-consumer ratios, the LME’s inventory-to-consumption ratio for April was 6.1 weeks (this is unmodified data), while other agencies’ forecasts were mostly above 4.7 weeks. Compared with copper, zinc, and nickel, aluminum's inventory-to-consumption ratio is very high. Currently, the copper market's inventory consumption is only about 1.8 weeks. The calculations show that the apparent consumption growth of China's aluminum is relatively strong, with an annual growth rate of 14% in the first four months of this year, but the increase in consumption is not enough to digest the increase in domestic aluminum production. In this case, the performance of aluminum prices is naturally inferior, especially domestic performance is even worse. Gradually surplus alumina supply From the perspective of global alumina market, after a large number of gaps in 2005, it is expected to gradually surplus this year. BROOK HUNT is relatively new. In 2006, there was a slight surplus of alumina in the previous quarter, and the supply in each quarter from 2006 to 2007 will gradually increase. From various foreign research reports, although the forecast data is different, the judgment of the alumina market is basically similar to the prediction of BROOK HUNT. In short, we will see in the coming period of time: the pressure of oversupply of alumina will increase. The bigger it is.
The domestic alumina production has also grown relatively rapidly, and stocks have also shown a continuous upward trend. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s alumina production in March was 996,000 tons, an increase of 45.9% year-on-year, and the previous quarter’s cumulative production was 2.768 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. With the production of new and expanded production capacity in various regions, the monthly output of alumina in China will continue to increase. It is estimated that China's alumina production this year will reach more than 13 million tons. The relatively large alumina projects currently under construction and proposed include: May 2006, Fuping Xinfa added 1 million tons of alumina production capacity; in the second half of the year, Nanshan Group may start production of 400,000 tons, and Luneng’s Jinbei may form 400,000 to 600,000. Ton production, of which the alumina increase is relatively large in Shandong area. Although alumina production has increased significantly, the balance of domestic alumina market is still very fragile. Although the inventory is increasing, the overall inventory is still at a very low level. Under the background of low inventory, the interruption of alumina production, the reduction in the amount of imported alumina, and the acceleration of the growth rate of primary aluminum production will also pose a great threat to the alumina supply situation. Therefore, in the short term, the supply and demand situation of domestic alumina remains Not too optimistic.
Current market structure and outlook In the basic metals of LME, the trading volume of aluminum is relatively active, and the open interest is also very large. At present, LME's aluminum holdings are close to 540,000 hands. Under such a large position, the aluminum market has a very high risk of cohesion. With the rapid rise in prices in the previous period, the price gap between the near and far futures is widening. The forward price movement on May 19 was steeper than that on April 19, indicating that the recent signs of contract aluminum prices being driven by funds are more apparent. Investors should be cautious: the current aluminum price does not reflect the true fundamentals, which masks a lot of potential negative factors, these factors may eventually threaten the aluminum price rise. The fund lacks confidence in the aluminum market. Therefore, the short-term trend of aluminum prices will be mainly affected by the trend of other basic metals (especially copper), and it will be possible to follow the pattern of copper prices entering a wide range of oscillations. The LME price range is about 2600 to 3,000 USD/ton. Shanghai's price range is about 20,000 to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum market is still relatively passive.
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