With the smooth delivery of the September contract, the 1301 contract continued to decline in volume during the first two days of the month, dropping to a low of 2,530 yuan/ton, with a maximum discount of 250 yuan/ton. The subsequent “V†reversal was a significant oversold in the previous period. Make corrections. Based on the price discovery function of the ** market, the long-term time point corresponding to the 1301 contract is just the off-season of the methanol spot industry. Poor fundamental demand may lead to weaker price trends, and the macroeconomic environment will improve, such as “***†The favorable conditions such as the holding may boost the price of the period. Therefore, under the combined effect of commodity attributes and financial attributes, the methanol market will experience a price increase after the first two weeks.
First, during the holiday season, the limited number of goods vehicles will be good. During this holiday season, small passenger cars will receive “free passes.†In the case of a significant increase in traffic, some provinces and cities have imposed “injunctions†on dangerous goods carriers and large trucks, and large trucks of more than 15 tons. Dangerous goods transporters are prohibited from entering high speed from 7 pm to 2 pm from September 30th to October 7th. Restricted shipments of methanol from sources during the holiday season have become a consensus among manufacturers in the northwest region. Coupled with the pre-holiday downstream plant's stocking demand, it is not as expected. After the double festival, it may be brought by the low inventory of factory inventory. A round of stocking needs. The tight supply caused by the bottleneck of transportation will support the spot price.
Second, the new production capacity in the fourth quarter of the second half of the production has been confirmed to put into production of new coal methanol production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year, concentrated in central Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi. As of August, China's monthly average methanol production was 2.1 million tons, which was 30% higher than the same period of last year. In addition, China's methanol imports in August amounted to 424,600 tons, the cumulative amount for the first 8 months was 3,155,400 tons, and the amount of imported methanol remained large. Under the background of high international methanol prices, the profitability of import traders is even lower, which will dominate the change in the trade pattern of the methanol industry. Considered from seasonal factors, entering in October, with the advent of the low season of demand, the increase in supply has put pressure on prices.
Third, the downstream demand rotation support the real estate market, the strict regulation and control of the formaldehyde industry started to slump, the year-to-date operating rate of formaldehyde remained at 48% -49%, it is difficult to return to the previous level of 65%. Demand for formaldehyde was reduced by 8% during the year compared with the same period of last year. The construction and decoration industry was in the doldrums, and the market demand for adhesives, water-reducing agents and polyols was limited. As a result, the formaldehyde market was not booming during the peak season and the “Golden September†market was not yet reached. More difficult to expect. The downstream market is still optimistic about the dimethyl ether market, the overall start-up load is about 10% higher than last year's average, and with the continuous fall in crude oil prices, the decline in liquefied petroleum gas spreads, the dimethyl ether market lacks substantial interest, Shandong Province The price cuts were the first to stimulate shipments. The demand for dimethyl ether also showed a phased nature and was not sustainable. The acetic acid industry itself is constrained by excess production capacity, and it depends on the improvement brought about by the equipment overhaul. At present, the opening time of the methanol-to-olefin plant in Ningbo, east China, is uncertain, but there is still a bit of hope in the market for better demand.
Fourth, pay attention to risk prevention, wet storage festival In the last two trading weeks before the advent of the week, the turnover of methanol is relatively light, and positions are also showing a downward trend. The author believes that there are several reasons for this: First, the exchanges have increased the contract margin due to the requirement for long-term risk prevention, increased the opportunity cost of customer holdings of funds, and led to the inactivity of the entire transaction; second, since this week, The methanol price has been oscillating at a high level, and the willingness to track funds has been relatively weak. The market has been relatively weak in the participation of speculative forces. Third, the recent spot prices have risen slightly in areas other than Sichuan and Chongqing, while prices in other regions have continued to fall, and spot transactions have been conducted. It is also relatively light, and it also affects the enthusiasm of spot companies to enter the market to some extent.
The pre-holiday methanol price oscillation ranged from RMB 2750 to RMB 2820/tonne. After the holiday season, under the support of a new round of stocking demand in the downstream, the price is expected to rise in the short-term and the pressure at the top of 2,850 yuan/ton remains valid. Ideas.
First, during the holiday season, the limited number of goods vehicles will be good. During this holiday season, small passenger cars will receive “free passes.†In the case of a significant increase in traffic, some provinces and cities have imposed “injunctions†on dangerous goods carriers and large trucks, and large trucks of more than 15 tons. Dangerous goods transporters are prohibited from entering high speed from 7 pm to 2 pm from September 30th to October 7th. Restricted shipments of methanol from sources during the holiday season have become a consensus among manufacturers in the northwest region. Coupled with the pre-holiday downstream plant's stocking demand, it is not as expected. After the double festival, it may be brought by the low inventory of factory inventory. A round of stocking needs. The tight supply caused by the bottleneck of transportation will support the spot price.
Second, the new production capacity in the fourth quarter of the second half of the production has been confirmed to put into production of new coal methanol production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year, concentrated in central Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi. As of August, China's monthly average methanol production was 2.1 million tons, which was 30% higher than the same period of last year. In addition, China's methanol imports in August amounted to 424,600 tons, the cumulative amount for the first 8 months was 3,155,400 tons, and the amount of imported methanol remained large. Under the background of high international methanol prices, the profitability of import traders is even lower, which will dominate the change in the trade pattern of the methanol industry. Considered from seasonal factors, entering in October, with the advent of the low season of demand, the increase in supply has put pressure on prices.
Third, the downstream demand rotation support the real estate market, the strict regulation and control of the formaldehyde industry started to slump, the year-to-date operating rate of formaldehyde remained at 48% -49%, it is difficult to return to the previous level of 65%. Demand for formaldehyde was reduced by 8% during the year compared with the same period of last year. The construction and decoration industry was in the doldrums, and the market demand for adhesives, water-reducing agents and polyols was limited. As a result, the formaldehyde market was not booming during the peak season and the “Golden September†market was not yet reached. More difficult to expect. The downstream market is still optimistic about the dimethyl ether market, the overall start-up load is about 10% higher than last year's average, and with the continuous fall in crude oil prices, the decline in liquefied petroleum gas spreads, the dimethyl ether market lacks substantial interest, Shandong Province The price cuts were the first to stimulate shipments. The demand for dimethyl ether also showed a phased nature and was not sustainable. The acetic acid industry itself is constrained by excess production capacity, and it depends on the improvement brought about by the equipment overhaul. At present, the opening time of the methanol-to-olefin plant in Ningbo, east China, is uncertain, but there is still a bit of hope in the market for better demand.
Fourth, pay attention to risk prevention, wet storage festival In the last two trading weeks before the advent of the week, the turnover of methanol is relatively light, and positions are also showing a downward trend. The author believes that there are several reasons for this: First, the exchanges have increased the contract margin due to the requirement for long-term risk prevention, increased the opportunity cost of customer holdings of funds, and led to the inactivity of the entire transaction; second, since this week, The methanol price has been oscillating at a high level, and the willingness to track funds has been relatively weak. The market has been relatively weak in the participation of speculative forces. Third, the recent spot prices have risen slightly in areas other than Sichuan and Chongqing, while prices in other regions have continued to fall, and spot transactions have been conducted. It is also relatively light, and it also affects the enthusiasm of spot companies to enter the market to some extent.
The pre-holiday methanol price oscillation ranged from RMB 2750 to RMB 2820/tonne. After the holiday season, under the support of a new round of stocking demand in the downstream, the price is expected to rise in the short-term and the pressure at the top of 2,850 yuan/ton remains valid. Ideas.
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