Abstract Under the influence of the global economic recovery slowdown, the continuous decline of domestic and international market demand and the increasing pressure of transformation and upgrading, China's machine tool industry and market continue to show a downward trend, and industrial operation and market changes are showing new features. China's machine tool consumption market is making...
Under the influence of the global economic recovery slowdown, the continuous decline in domestic and international market demand and the increasing pressure of transformation and upgrading, China's machine tool industry and market continue to show a downward trend, and industrial operations and market changes are showing new features. The Chinese machine tool consumer market is the largest market in the world and the most volatile market in recent years. Correspondingly, the Chinese machine tool industry also has the same characteristics. Therefore, the changes in China's machine tool market and industry have received wide attention from the global industry. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese machine tool market has experienced great ups and downs, which is a process of ups and downs. Below we have selected the 2015 metalworking machine industry and the 2015 Chinese tool industry to briefly review this process.
First, the metal processing machine tool industry
Metal processing machine tool consumption: In 2015, China's metal processing machine tool consumption totaled 27.5 billion US dollars, down 13.5% year-on-year. Among them, the share of imported machine tools is 31.3%. The process of changing the consumer market for metalworking machine tools is divided into two major phases, the rapid growth phase from 2010 to 2011, and the stagnant growth and continued downturn that began in 2012. Among them, the stagnation and down phase also clearly formed three steps (2011-2012, 2013-2014, 2015-present). This is basically consistent with our market experience.
Imports of metal processing machine tools: In 2015, the total import value of metal processing machine tools was US$8.6 billion, down 20.4% year-on-year. Among them, metal cutting machine tools were 7 billion US dollars, down 20.8% year-on-year; metal forming machine tools were 1.6 billion US dollars, down 16.2% year-on-year.
Metal processing machine tool output: In 2015, metal processing machine tool production totaled US$22.1 billion, down 9.4% year-on-year. Among them, metal cutting machine tools were 12.2 billion US dollars, down 9% year-on-year; metal forming machine tools were 9.9 billion US dollars, down 10% year-on-year.
Metal processing machine tool exports: In 2015, metal processing machine tool exports totaled 3.2 billion US dollars, down 5.9% year-on-year, compared with the same period in 2014, the growth rate dropped 24.7 percentage points. Among them, metal cutting machine tools were 2.1 billion US dollars, down 7.5 year-on-year; metal forming machine tools were 1.1 billion US dollars, down 2.7% year-on-year.
Second, the Chinese tool industry
Tool consumption: In 2015, China's total tool consumption was US$4.5 billion, down 12.1% year-on-year. Among them, the share of import tools is 33.3%.
Tool output: In 2015, total tool production was US$5.6 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2014, the growth rate dropped by 11.6 percentage points.
Tool imports: In 2015, the total import of tools was US$1.5 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2014, the growth rate dropped by 18.6 percentage points.
Tool exports: In 2015, total tool exports totaled US$2.6 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2014, the growth rate dropped by 20%.
Continued market downside adjustments have had a comprehensive and profound impact on the Chinese machine tool industry. Industrial differentiation and transformation and upgrading have increasingly become the main features of industrial development in recent years.
China's machine tool industry and market continue to show the trend of “traditional engine deceleration and emerging power joining†while continuing the “decrease in total demand and upgrading of demand structureâ€. In the future, the basic estimate of China's machine tool industry and market changes is that “the overall outlook is good and the transformation pressure is increasingâ€. It is expected that the scale of China's machine tool industry and market will show a slight decline in 2016.
Regarding the trend of the machine tool market in 2016, we have the following basic judgments for your reference only.
1. As far as the market as a whole is concerned, the whole year will still be in the downward adjustment range, but the downward trend will be narrowed to a certain extent compared with last year.
2. The market structure differentiation has further evolved. The market demand for metal cutting machine tool sub-sectors is expected to stabilize at this end, and the downward trend of the market for metal forming machine tools and measuring tools may further deepen.
3. The main direction of market demand structure upgrade (automation package, customized order and general shift upgrade) will become more obvious.
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